EUR/USD

The first week of the new year continued to amaze. Friday data on US employment was enchanting. Outside the agricultural sector in December, 312 thousand new jobs were created, the November data was revised up by 58 thousand. Hourly rates for the month increased by 0.4%. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.9%, but due to the increase in the share of the economically active population from 62.9% to 63.1%.

Perhaps such remarkable indicators are a kind of gratitude from the Ministry of Labor for the exception given to it for the period of shutdown, and in the future these figures will be revised downwards, but even if they are halved, the employment situation is clearly interpreted as a positive result of Trump's reforms. But the dollar was hampered by the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He said that the central bank will continue to be patient (in the matter of raising interest rates) and monitor the economy as a whole. Investors these words understood definitely the weakness of Powell in front of the pressure from Trump and even doubted two promotions in 2019.

The political situation in the shutdown of Mexican wall embittered. Trump has now announced his intention to build a steel wall instead of a concrete one and has threatened to hold off the government indefinitely with the imposition of a state of emergency.

Political tensions, of course, play against the dollar. Today, and in the Asian session, the price overcame the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel to the daily, which on the four-hour chart was reflected in the consolidation above the Krusenstern line and the balance line. The immediate goal is the resistance line Kruzenshtern on a daily scale (1.1442).

Overcoming this line will allow the price to grow to 1.1497. But higher growth will require stronger reasons, such as the fed's unusually lenient minutes from the December meeting, which is being published on Wednesday. In favor of the dollar can play the course of U.S. negotiations with China on trade.

We are waiting for the development of the situation - it is dangerous to sell, it is doubtful to buy ...