Hello!

At yesterday's trading, the EUR/USD currency pair could not continue the growth started on Monday and ended the session on November 12 with a decline. Before proceeding to the technical part of this article, it is necessary to note an important event that took place last night. This is a speech by the 45th President of the United States Donald Trump at the Economic Club of New York.

In short, most of the speech of the American leader was devoted to the success in the economy and comparing the effectiveness of the Trump administration with previous administrations of Bush and Obama.

The current president of the United States noted that under him and only under him, the American economy has achieved unprecedented success. So, Donald Trump emphasized that for his three-year reign, the earnings of ordinary Americans grew by $ 5,000, while under the previous administrations, the growth was only a few hundred. As usual, it went to Democrats, who, according to Trump, have no idea about energy.

Trump criticized the Fed. According to the President of the United States, the Federal Reserve puts him in the wheel and prevents him from moving to foreign markets. Tellingly, Trump has been talking about interference from the Fed for quite some time.

In general, the speech of Donald Trump at the New York Economic Club had a pronounced pre-election character, which is not at all surprising, given this platform.

Before proceeding to the technical part of this review, it should be noted that today at 14:30 (London time), the US will publish the most important inflation data, namely the consumer price index. These reports are likely to significantly affect the dynamics of the US currency across the spectrum of the market, including the pair of the US dollar with the euro.

Daily

On the daily chart, we see that the pair could not overcome the resistance in the form of a 55 simple moving average, and after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this moving, it turned to a decline.

At the moment, trading in euro/dollar is taking place without a pronounced focus, probably market participants are expecting the release of US data on CPI.

According to the technical picture, it is worth noting that now EUR/USD is trading around the middle of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which is a zone of uncertainty. However, it is precisely on such important data as the US consumer price index that one can count on the pair leaving the cloud up or down. It is reasonable to assume that the direction will be chosen taking into account the actual figures for CPI.

On the daily chart, the nearest targets at the top are 1.1037 (55 MA) and 1.1064 (upper cloud boundary and Kijun). The bears' goal will be the lower border of the cloud at 1.0967 and attempts to finish today's trading below this mark.

H1

On the hourly chart, I stretched the Fibonacci grid to a decrease of 1.1175-1.1002. Taking into account that the quote has reached the psychological and technical level of 1.1000, a correction is quite real. But how deep the expected pullback will be will depend, among other things, on today's inflation reports from the United States.

As a rule, the first three levels of correction — 23.6, 38.2, and 50.0 — are the benchmarks near which you can consider opening deals on the main trend. However, in the personal opinion of the author, it is worth paying attention to the level of 1.1064. As already indicated in the description of the daily chart, at this mark is the upper boundary of the cloud and the Kijun line. On the hourly timeframe at 1.1064, there is a strong 233 EMA. Whoever wishes, you can set the sell limit 1.1064 (sl 1.1114 / tp 1.0957).

A larger sales area is 1.1060-1.1100. Nevertheless, despite the current bearish trend, before opening short positions it will not be superfluous to enlist the support of appropriate candlestick analysis models on 4-hour and (or) hour timeframes.

Despite the probability of a corrective pullback, purchases against the main trend are therefore riskier. In my opinion, it is better to skip them and open the trend down.

Successful and profitable trades!