The wave layout of the 4-hour chart has continued to get confusing in recent days, as the assumed wave d of an older scale may take on a five-wave form. There are no grounds and reasons to expect a violation of the current general wave marking yet. So far, we have only a complication inside the wave d. Moreover, in Friday's review, I warned that an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level will throw the quotes up and lead to the construction of a new upward wave. That is, the option with a shortened c will be declared invalid. In practice, now everything looks exactly like this. At the moment, I expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument with targets located near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, and in the case of a successful attempt to break this level, I do not exclude the continuation of the increase in the direction of the 38.2% level. At the same time, I do not yet expect the completion of the construction of the downward section of the trend, which begins at the beginning of 2021. Hence, another descending wave must be constructed, presumably e.

On Friday and Monday, the news background in the European Union and the United States was practically absent. No, of course, there was news that deserved attention. For example, on Friday there was another rise in the yield of 10-year Treasuries in the United States. And in the European Union, the situation with coronavirus and vaccination remains difficult. However, the rise in bond yields in the US this time led to a very modest increase in the dollar quotes. Today, it has stopped altogether, so the question is increasingly raised, is there any dependence at all between the growth of the yield of treasuries and the dollar exchange rate at this time? For some time the markets reacted to this indicator, but now?

The same can be said about the failed vaccination process in the European Union. Even though vaccines are sorely lacking, and the EU authorities are doing everything in their power to calm the storm of emotions coming from EU member states that lack vaccines, the euro is not overly responsive to this crisis. In general, the euro has been declining for a couple of months, since the beginning of 2021, but it can hardly be said that the main reason for this decline is the vaccination crisis in the EU. But weak economic indicators in the European Union, in particular GDP, may cause the euro to sell-off. Moreover, they are unlikely to begin to improve soon to cause the construction of a new, strong upward wave. I believe more that everything will develop according to the current wave counting, as I consider it the most accurate forecasting tool now. Thus, now I recommend buying the Euro/Dollar instrument with the expectation of building a wave e to d. After completing the construction of this wave, the construction of wave e may begin with targets located near the 17th figure. Then I will recommend already selling the pair.

The wave counting of the upward trend section is still quite complete, five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a rather complex form. The instrument is likely to build alternating corrective structures for some time. Thus, now I still expect an increase in the instrument quotes within the expected wave d.