GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair increased to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3764), a rebound from it, a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a fall to the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3728). Closing below the level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.3670). On Monday, the information background was weak. There was no important news or reports. But today, for the British, there will be as many as two, and maybe even three. I have already mentioned the inflation report, which is of great importance since for the first time in a long time this indicator can grow above 2.0% y/y. No less important will be the UK GDP report. This will not be a classic quarterly or annual report. Today, data on the three-month average will be released and traders' expectations are -2%. To make it more clear how GDP changed in February, a monthly report will also be released, with a forecast of 0.4%-0.6%. That is, according to forecasts, GDP grew slightly in February, but in January, it fell by almost three percent. Therefore, the February figures will have a minimum positive impact on the quarterly GDP value. As with the inflation report, traders can react to the GDP data in any way they want. They may pay more attention to the average indicator, or they may rejoice in the growth of GDP in the monthly indicator. So today could be quite a chaotic day for the Brit. The industrial production report for February may also be of some interest. A slight increase in volume is expected no more than half a percent.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency and anchored under the ascending trend line. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish", and the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). Closing quotes below this level will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3457).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made another attempt to close under the ascending trend line, and this time it looks like a successful one. Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Monday, Bank of England representatives Haldane and Tenreyro made speeches in the UK, however, they did not tell traders anything important.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - change in GDP (06:00 UTC).
UK - change in industrial production (06:00 UTC).
US - consumer price index (12:30 UTC).
US - consumer price index excluding food and energy prices (12:30 UTC).
On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain important reports. Today, the information background will have a strong impact on the pair.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of April 6 on the British dollar again showed the lack of a strong desire among traders to deal with this currency. During the week, speculators closed another 2,614 long contracts and opened 2,120 short contracts. Thus, their mood has shifted a little more in the direction of "bearish". Although in general, the situation is the same as for the European – the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the category of "Non-commercial" traders is twice as large (or so) as the number of short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators is still characterized as "bullish", so the growth of the British dollar may well be resumed. But now the charts of the pair's movement must form the corresponding graphical structures that support growth (trend lines, corridors).
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is not recommended to buy the British dollar now, as the quotes have closed under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart and there are similar closures on the older charts. I recommend selling the pound at the close of quotes under the level of 76.4% (1.3728) on the hourly chart with the goals of 1.3670 and 1.3603.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
