President Trump's tweets are currently the main driving force of the markets. The announcement of reaching an agreement on the first phase of a trade deal with China led to bond sales, which is another record levels of US stock indices and a general decrease in tension.
A little later, the Bloomberg agency confirmed Trump's message. According to them, Trump signed an agreement on the first stage, and according to which, the American side reduces the existing duties on imports of goods from China by half and refrains from introducing new duties on December 15, and China, in turn, gives guarantees purchases of agricultural products from the United States in significantly higher volumes.
On the other hand, economic indicators faded into the background against the backdrop of a positive reaction to reports on the progress of the negotiations. However, they cannot be ignored. The reports are alarming - despite the stabilization of consumer inflation at comfortable levels for the Fed, production prices are slowly but surely continuing to decline. In November, price growth was zero, and year-on-year, the growth slowed down from 1.6% to 1.3%.
The slowdown in producer prices is another signal that despite all efforts, the US economy continues to lose growth in a number of ways. Labor productivity decreased in 3 quarters, labor costs slowed, which would inevitably lead to a slowdown in consumer demand, and ISM in the manufacturing sector confidently consolidated below 50p.
All these factors indicate that the positive effect of a possible conclusion of a trade agreement will not last long. Therefore, the markets will need to present something more substantial, such as an increase in world trade or consumer demand.
USD/CAD
Yesterday, BoC CEO Stephen Poloz held an annual press conference at the Imperial Club of Canada, which was expected with great interest, but Poloz, in fact, did not introduce any new benchmarks to the markets.
In addition, Poloz expressed concern about the high level of uncertainty, which is the result of low rates, rising debt and technological changes, and expects negative consequences for both households and companies and governments. Poloz also associated the slowdown in labor productivity with a weakening population growth, calling it structural factors, and made no predictions about the Bank of Canada rate.
In the coming weeks, tax cuts are expected for middle-income citizens, which may increase household incomes and slightly support inflation, and updated budget information will be provided in the coming days. This news will support the loonie, but not significantly. Thus, the main reaction will remain on commodity prices in Canada, global trade prospects and demand in the United States.
Technically, expectations for USD/CAD remain bearish. The recent low of 1.3160 has been tested. Meanwhile, the current key support is 1.3135 / 45 (61.8% of the growth in October and November). With the breakdown of support, it will open the way to 1.3145 / 50.
USD/JPY
The volume of industrial production in Japan declined in October by 4.4%. The annual decline - the maximum in more than 6 years and amounts to 7.7%. The activity index for large Tankan enterprises in the fourth quarter, published this morning, came out mixed - the growth of the index from 6.6% to 6.8% was due solely to activity in the services sector, manufacturing companies showed a slowdown, and the general state of the business is noticeably lower than a year ago.
The yen was ready for a bearish breakdown from the range of 108.30 / 109.70, but a surge of enthusiasm caused by the increased probability of a US-China trade deal raised USD/JPY at the upper boundary of the range. Now, a breakthrough is possible, but it will be based only on the sale of the yen as a protective asset. At the same time, the upward momentum, which started in August, shows clear signs of fatigue. Thus, if the resistance 109.70 stands, and we will find out about this in the near future, the probability of a downward turn will increase, and the target will form at levels 106.50 / 107. Alternatively, if there are reports of the official signing of the first phase of the trade deal, then growth may continue to the resistance zone 110.50 / 70.
