EUR/USD

Yesterday, unfavorable news came out for the euro. First of all, the US and China signed the first part of the trade agreement, under which China pledged to further increase purchases of US goods and services (+$77 billion), for which Washington lowered duties to 7.5% on the volume of Chinese goods worth $120 billion. Several observers noted that the main terms of the agreement are unlikely to be fulfilled by China. The parties agreed to involve the IMF as a verification observer in disputes. Industrial production in the euro area in the November estimate increased by 0.2% against the forecast of 0.3% and the trade balance decreased from 28.0 billion euros to 20.7 billion.

Today, data on retail sales for December is published in the United States: the forecast for the core retail sales index is 0.5%, and total sales are expected to grow by 0.3%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Philadelphia can also show growth - the forecast for January is 3.7 against 0.3 in December.

The price yesterday reached the expected level of 110.0% Fibonacci. Today, on the retail trade data, we are waiting for the price to turn down. The nearest goal, in the two-day perspective, is 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and support for the MACD line.

As seen on the four-hour chart, the price came out with a fix over the MACD line, having worked out 50.0% of the fall on December 31-January 10. The return of the price under the MACD line (1.1140) will be the first signal to the intention of the price to turn around.