Analysis of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 156.56 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy. Since this happened towards the end of the American session, no new entry points into the market were obtained. Yesterday's positive figures for machinery orders and trade balance in Japan were ignored, but today's indicators of economic activity in Japan were met with yen strengthening. The manufacturing PMI and services PMI in Japan exceeded economists' forecasts, leading to a slight downward correction of the USD/JPY pair. However, the question remains how long yen buyers will last, especially in a bullish dollar market and with the Federal Reserve's firm stance on interest rates. For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 156.80 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 157.15 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.15, I plan to exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). One can count on the pair's growth today as the trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.56 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected at the opposite levels of 156.80 and 157.15.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 156.56 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.30, where I plan to exit the sales and open buys immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Selling pressure on the pair may return if it fails to consolidate around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.80 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected at the opposite levels of 156.56 and 156.30.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator: It is crucial to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I have presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.