On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news came out:
- 8.30 London time GBP, retail sales (m / m) (Aug.); The expected value of 0.2% compared to the previous value of 0.3%;
- 14.00 London time USD, sales in the secondary housing market (Aug.); The expected value of 5.46M compared to the previous value of 5.44M;
- 14.30 London time, USD, stocks of crude oil; The expected value of 2.925M compared to the previous value of 5.888M;
- 18.00 London time USD, economic forecasts of the FOMC;
- 18.00 London time USD, application of the FOMC;
- 18.00 London time USD, the decision on the interest rate of the Fed; The expected value of 1.25% compared to the previous value of 1.25%;
- 18.30 London time USD, press conference of the FOMC.
EUR / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
On Tuesday, the price moved up in the side channel in anticipation of interest rates, which will be released today. On Wednesday, the market may continue lateral upward movement in anticipation of the news. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Overall, the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved up which is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow) giving signals of the top trend.
21, the middle EMA line moved up that is above the 13th EMA midline which weakens the signals of the upper channel.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% up;
the MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% up;
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% higher.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have an upward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up (red dotted line);
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion:
On Wednesday, the EUR / USD pair will mostly have movement in the upper channel because of the news. The target is 1.2092.
GBP / USD pair
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
On Tuesday, the market moved in the side channel in anticipation of strong news coming out on Wednesday. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next which is driven by the recent news.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator period 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up, but the fast line reached a value of more than 90%. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the daily chart gives a downward trend (Fig. 2).
The system of RSI indicators (Figure 2).
When working with the daily chart, the ones are the ones used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).
The candle closed at the last day.
The Property calculation of the RSI indicator (5) gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the RSI indicator (8 ) gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The property calculation of the CCI indicator gives a downward trend.
The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives a downward trend.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have a downward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion:
On Wednesday before the news comes out, it is possible for the GBP / USD pair to continue the downward movement.
