We have been bearish since mid October in USDJPY since it was trading around 105.50. Since then price got rejected and fell around 100 pips towards support area of 104.50-104.30. So far price has bounced twice from this support level. The next couple of sessions are very important for the short-term trend at least.

Green line - support

As long as price is below the red downward sloping resistance trend line we remain bearish. If support at 104.30-104.50 fails to hold we should expect USDJPY to challenge 102.50-102 lows. The descending triangle pattern with the lower highs is a weakness sign. However for more downside to be achieved, price should not form higher lows in the RSI, as this is a sign of weak selling. Despite making lower lows USDJPY bears need to break through the support decisively. A daily close below 104.25 and staying below this level will be the key for a move towards 102. If support holds, we should expect price to bounce towards 105-105.35.