The dollar continued to lose its position in all days of last week although at a slower pace. It made attempts to grow but only in respect with the ruble did it manage to improve its position a little. The rest are purely symbolically.

The pace of industrial production in the US accelerated from 3.5% to 3.6% but this seems to be the only thing that the dollar can put into the asset. The number of issued construction permits decreased by 0.1% and the construction projects started was at 8.2%. And although the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 261 thousand to 220 thousand against the background of the increase in the number of repeated applications, from 1,876 thousand to 1 952 thousand, it still looks pale. Thus, the US statistics clearly did not give reasons for the dollar to grow.

Meanwhile, as expected, inflation in Europe has slowed from 1.5% to 1.4% but the market has long laid it in the value of the euro. However, the slowdown in inflation in the UK from 3.1% to 3.0%, on the contrary, was perceived positively, as apparently, the Bank of England did not completely lose control over the situation. This somewhat reassured investors. So, the pound was able to improve its position even despite the slowdown in retail sales from 1.5% to 1.4%.

The current week will be extremely interesting as the ECB meeting on monetary policy will take place on Thursday. It will determine the course of events. The intrigue is that the text of the minutes of the last meeting refers to the possibility of raising the refinancing rate in the first half of this year. Of course, according to the results of the January meeting, the rate will not be raised. However, after the meeting, there will be a press conference by Mario Draghi. Everybody is waiting for answers to many questions from the head of the ECB. The most important of them is whether they will raise the rate in the spring. If investors receive an affirmative answer, then the euro will continue its growth. Otherwise, it is worth waiting for the continued weakening of not only the euro, but also other currencies. In addition,preliminary data on business activity indices will be published in Europe. This is expected to show a decline. Despite all of this, everything will be determined by the results of the ECB meeting.

In the UK, data on the labor market will be published and with the stability of the unemployment rate, it is expected that wage growth will accelerate. Meanwhile, wage growth rates, including bonuses, will decrease. Not only do salaries grow at a rate lower than inflation, salaries with premiums are growing at a slower pace than wages and investors do not like it. Also at the end of the week, the final GDP figures are coming out which should confirm the fact that economic growth is slowing from 1.7% to 1.4%. Therefore, the pound will have a hard time.

In turn, preliminary data on business activity indices in the US is expected to show a decline in all parameters, which will not add optimism to the dollar. Sales of housing in the secondary market may be reduced by 2.1%. However, sales of new homes should grow by 0.3% as well as orders for durable goods, which are expected to grow by 0.2%. Despite this, the dollar's life may be spoiled by GDP data for the fourth quarter, as it is expected that it will show a slowdown in economic growth.

Everything will depend on the outcome of the ECB meeting. If Mario Draghi makes it clear that the spring is likely to raise the refinancing rate, then the EUR/USD pair will rise to 1.2400. If the head of the ECB disappoints investors, then the pair will start to decline to 1.2000.

The GBP/USD pair does not have this growth potential and only if the dollar weakens against the euro does the pair have a chance to grow to 1.4000. Otherwise, the pair is waiting for the imminent decline to 1.3750.