4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 85 p-78 p-102 p-94 p-55 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 83 p (83 p).

The EUR/USD pair ended the third trading day of the week with another, highly expected, decline. For the last couple of days, the pair was moving like a textbook: a small correction - a new downward decline. This took place despite the fact that no new information on the topic of Brexit was available to traders, as well as no important macroeconomic data were released in the United States. It is unlikely that the next round of the downward movement was triggered by weak preliminary values of business activity indices in the services and production sectors of the eurozone for October. We note the decline in these figures in themselves, but they could not have had such a strong impact on the course of trading. Thus, the euro can now decline all because of the same Brexit topic as well as real and official information about it. And official information says that negotiations have failed and the parties are unlikely to agree on a "deal". Theresa May still cannot reach an agreement even with the parliament and her own party. The second factor in the decline of the instrument may be technical, we have already talked about this in yesterday's and the day before yesterday's morning reviews. All indicators are directed downwards, the "dead cross" is strong, the correction takes place almost every day. Thus, before the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting, or rather even ahead of the ECB press conference, the situation with the EUR/USD currency pair is unlikely. And then everything will depend on Mario Draghi, whether he will be able to inspire optimism in traders, and whether he will touch upon the topic of Brexit in his speech at all, or will he limit himself to general phrases about monetary policy?

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR/USD pair, the price continues its downward movement. Thus, now it is recommended to continue shorting the pair to support the level of 1.1334. A reversal of the MACD indicator to the top will indicate the beginning of an upward correction.

Buy orders can be considered only after the bulls manage to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line. In this case, there will be prerequisites for the formation of an uptrend with the first targets of the Senkou span B line and the resistance level of 1.1612.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.