4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 101p - 117p - 54p - 39p - 96p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 81p (71p).

During January 31, the EUR/USD currency pair suspended an upward movement, which began yesterday due to absolutely "dovish" statements of the Federal Reserve representatives. Thus, we can assume that the effect of this event has exhausted itself. In the course of the day in the eurozone, preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter was released, and it coincided with forecasts of 1.2% yoy. The unemployment rate for December remained unchanged at 7.9%. In general, important news was not available to traders during Thursday. From a technical point of view, the pair perfectly worked out the resistance level of 1.1499 and bounced off of it. Therefore, a downward correction to the Kijun-sen line is currently feasible. The MACD indicator can turn downwards on the current bar, which will confirm the beginning of a corrective movement. Meanwhile US President Donald Trump once again spoke about the need to build a wall on the border with Mexico, citing the increased level of crime abroad. As a result, this level of crime threatens to cross the border into the United States. Trump said that the construction of the wall is not a political project, but a measure designed to protect US citizens from illegal immigrants and crimes related to them. So far, Congress has not agreed to issue the necessary funds. And Trump is preparing for a new "shutdown"?

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair can start a new round of correction, which can be signaled by the MACD indicator turning downwards. Thus, new longs will become relevant after the completion of a correction or in case of overcoming the level of 1.1499 with a target of 1.1560.

Sell positions will be relevant not earlier than the price consolidating below the critical line with targets of 1,1398 and 1,1325. Given the extremely low probability of the pair going above the level of 1.1560, the descent to these levels over time is very likely.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

Translation