4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 45p - 78p - 19p - 27p - 69p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 48p (41p).

The third trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair ends with the resumption of a downward movement and an update of yesterday's low. Today, traders have not received any important macroeconomic information again; nevertheless, the moment when yesterday's low was updated and a re-test of the level of 1.1200 is very indicative. Since this time the pair did not rebound far enough from this level. Therefore, the chances of overcoming the level of 1.1200 grows, and with them there is a likelihood that the European currency will further fall against the US dollar, which has been brewing for several months. The most interesting part in this story is yet to come. The US Federal Reserve has stopped raising rates, and most likely there will be no monetary tightening in 2019. This was exactly what Donald Trump wanted, who believed that the US dollar was growing mainly because of Jerome Powell's aggressive and too "hawkish" policies. However, as we can see, the public announcement regarding the refusal of hikes for 2019 did not really help the euro currency or the pound sterling. Both currencies continue to decline in the long term. If the pound sterling falls mainly due to Brexit, then the euro currency does not have such a serious pressure factor. Here, most likely, the overall market propensity to buy US dollars is based on the better economic situation in America than in the EU. From a technical point of view, the pair has overcome the support level of 1.1205 and, accordingly, it can continue the downward movement to the second support level of 1.1167.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement and overcame the level of 1.1205. A rebound from this area is still likely, but now the chances of continuing the downward movement are increasing. Thus, short positions with the target of 1.1167 are relevant.

It is recommended to consider purchase orders in small lots with a target of 1.1248 and the Senkou span B line not earlier than when the price is consolidated above the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the initiative will go into the hands of bulls for some time.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.