4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 74.7399

As we wrote last night, the reaction of traders to Mario Draghi's speech dedicated to the ECB meeting was completely illogical. Often, after such cases, the next day begins to move back, already corresponding to the nature of the original information. That is why today we expect at least a new round of correction to the moving average. Another significant point is the inability of news to overcome the maximum effect of the environment on June 5. Today, unfortunately for the US currency, a very impressive package of macroeconomic information will again arrive from the States. "Unfortunately" - because the last week of statistics from America was frankly a failure. Only the ISM business activity index in the service sector was good. Thus, there is every reason to assume that today the statistics will be disappointing. The main report of the day, of course, is NonFarm Payrolls – the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. Given the minimum value of reports from ADP on changes in the number of employees in the private sector, NonFarm may also fail and be significantly lower than the forecast of 185000. In addition to NonFarm in the States, there will be a report on unemployment for May and the change in average hourly wages. We believe that even with weak data from overseas, the markets will still begin to work on Mario Draghi's performance yesterday. That is, the correction to the moving is inevitable.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1261

S2 – 1.1230

S3 – 1.1200

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1292

R2 – 1.1322

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement. Formally, long positions on the euro with targets at 1.1229 and 1.1353 remain relevant, but in the event of a reversal of Heiken Ashi down or ahead of the news, it is recommended to reduce purchases of the euro.

It is recommended to sell the euro after the bears return the initiative to their hands and the euro/dollar pair will consolidate under the moving average line with the first targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.