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06.04.2020 12:59 PM
EUR/USD: plan for the US session on April 6. Bulls are probing the market, but weak statistics do not allow us to start a correction. The target remains the resistance of 1.0833

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the resistance of 1.0833, which could not be broken above in the first half of the day due to another poor fundamental data indicating a reduction in the economic growth rate of the eurozone. The report on the decline in investor confidence scared off the bulls, whose target is still the resistance of 1.0833. Only fixing it will allow you to think about the continuation of the upward correction against the background of profit fixing by bears, with a likely test of the maximum of 1.0894 and an update of the larger resistance of 1.0955, where I recommend fixing the profit. If the pressure on EUR/USD persists in the second half of the day since there are no reports on the US economy today, it is best to return to long positions only after updating the minimum of 1.0776, provided that a false breakout is formed or immediately to rebound from the larger support of 1.0718.

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To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The reluctance to sell the euro at current lows still prevails over the desire to buy EUR/USD against the background of such terrible fundamental statistics for the eurozone. The 5-minute chart clearly shows how sellers coped with their morning task and protected the range of 1.0833, where the formation of a false breakout led to another sale and an update of the low of 1.0776. In the second half of the day, an equally important task for the bears is to break through and consolidate below this area, which will definitely push EUR/USD to a larger level of 1.0718, and then to the annual minimum in the area of 1.0636, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of repeated growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.0833, I recommend postponing new short positions until the test of larger highs of 1.0894 or "short" EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the area of 1.0955.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the likely end of the bearish trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of an upward correction in the second half of the day, a break in the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.0833 will lead to an increase in the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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