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26.05.2020 12:51 PM
Lull in the foreign exchange market

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The dollar strengthened against the euro and the yen during the Asian trading session yesterday. The growth of the greenback was also recorded in pair with the Chinese yuan.

According to the data, the euro fell by about 0.17% against the dollar, which pushed it to the level of 1.0883 dollars. The single European currency changed course against the backdrop of the news last week, which came from the ECB after the last meeting. As it became known, the leaders of the regulator have lost hope for rapid economic growth and accelerated recovery of all processes. The COVID-19 pandemic put too much pressure on the global economy in general, particularly in the Eurozone.

The minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank, among other things, include a clause that reflects the willingness to redeem the next portion of securities. So, the regulator plans to begin redemption of bonds of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. In addition, other instruments are provided, which are an integral part of general incentive measures.

Euro, in relation to the national currency of Japan also reduced its value. The euro has moved to the level of 117.24 yen, which was previously at 11.32 yen.

The American dollar, on the contrary, demonstrated an upward trend. In relation to the yen, it rose in price and moved to the mark of 107.73 yen, which was previously around 107.64 yen.

The ICE index, which shows the dynamics of the US currency against a basket of six major world currencies, which include the euro, yen, pound sterling, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar, started the week without any significant changes, demonstrating confident stability.

Meanwhile, the USD continues to grow against the Chinese yuan which rose by about 0.18%. This reflected the value of the dollar within 7.1421 yuan. Recall that trading on Friday closed at 7.1294 yuan per dollar. The growing conflict between the US and China puts even more pressure on the yuan and forces the dollar to rise in value. This may end with the realization of the most favorable forecast for the greenback.

More risky sentiment began to reign in the foreign exchange market, as the "war" between the economic powers (the US and China) fuels investor interest. Now market participants are making assumptions about how serious the impact of a trade conflict between countries on national currency rates will be. For example, on the last day of trading last week, growing tension could put pressure on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

So far, only one thing is clear: if America decides to go all the way and withdraws its companies from Hong Kong, thereby changing the status of the city as a world financial center, the reaction of financial markets will be immediate and very stormy. However, according to experts, this effect will not be too long, because the total volume of exchanged goods between the USA and Hong Kong is rather low.

At the same time, fear should be more for the financial industry of Hong Kong itself. And financial markets will immediately feel disruptions in their work.

Nevertheless, analysts express the hope that the conflict will not go too far and that the parties will find a way to end it. At least, China may stop aggravating the situation until there is a new president in America, whose elections will be held within six months.

This week will not become too eventful, as markets in the USA will not work due to the national holiday of Remembrance Day. Among the important information anticipated is the report on consumer confidence and statistics on the income and expenses of individuals in the United States. All this is expected to be released in the second half of the week, and while the market is likely to expect some stagnation.

This week, the euro will seek solace in IFO reports for Germany, the inflation rate will also be extremely important. More significant news in Europe is not expected, while previous statistics were more than unconvincing. Recall that last month retail sales showed a record decline. In this regard, there are more and more reasons to strengthen stimulating policies, as well as finally introduce negative rates.

Maria Shablon,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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