To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Good data on the recovery of the service sector was ignored, which is a bad signal for buyers, although nothing has changed from a technical point of view. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls made an unsuccessful attempt to rise above the resistance of 1.2609, after which the pressure on the pound returned. However, the support test of 1.2565, which I drew attention to in my morning forecast and where I recommended buying under the condition of a false breakdown, returned demand for the pound, which leaves the market on the side of buyers. The bulls will continue to focus on breaking through the resistance of 1.2609, fixing on which can lead to the continued growth of the pair in the area of the highs of 1.2647 and 1.2686, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a repeated decline in the pair to the support area of 1.2565, I recommend not to rush with purchases. It is best to wait for the update of the minimum of 1.2504, where the moving averages pass or buy GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from the larger level of 1.2439, where buyers will try to form a new lower border of the ascending channel.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Sellers are still acting quite cautiously and are not in a hurry to return to the market, although buyers ignoring good data on the service sector and the pair's inability to get above resistance 1.2609 in the morning is the first call for a possible downward correction. However, much will depend on the market's reaction to similar data for the United States. The task of the bears is to hold the resistance at 1.2609, and the formation of a false breakout there will be the first signal to sell the pound, which will be able to lead to a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2565, which is very important for the current short-term outlook. Only a move below the level of 1.2565 will force many speculative buyers to close long positions, which will lead to a sale of GBP/USD to the area of lows of 1.2504 and 1.2439, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, updating even these supports will only be considered a corrective movement within the upward trend of May 18. In the scenario of further growth of the pound in the second half of the day, it is best to return to short positions only after updating the resistance of 1.2647 or even higher – from the maximum of 1.2686 with the goal of a downward movement of 30-35 points to the close of the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a high probability of continuation of the bullish trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.2609 will lead to a new powerful wave of growth of the pound. In case of a decline, the lower border of the indicator around 1.2530 will provide support, from where you can open long positions immediately for a rebound.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20