The latest COT reports from 01.09.20 showed that major players, summing up the results of August, continued to actively invest in the pound. Here, open Interest increased from 175363 to 186588 (+11225). A significant increase is also noted in the final total position (p.p. 13809; +5559), which is now supporting the bearish direction, the part of the Commercial group that adheres to bearish sentiments (p.p. with short prevalence 20121; +6271). On the other hand, the Non-Commercial Group preferred to demonstrate some parity in investments (long +3823 - short +3111), while maintaining and slightly increasing the net position with a preponderance of long positions (6312; +712).

The main conclusion

In the absence of strong activity of the opponent, the short-term players continue to insist on possible long-term prospects for themselves.

Technical picture

The mood quickly allowed the bears to form weekly preconditions for a correction when the bulls abandoned dominance and active strengthening of their positions. As a result, the pair is testing the key supports of this area again - the daily Ichimoku cross (1.3298 - 1.3231 - 1.3171), strengthened by the historical border of 1.32. A consolidation below will allow the bearish traders to continue the active decline, the reference points for which will be the weekly levels, led by Tenkan (1.2980), and the daily cloud. If the upside traders manage to hold above 1.32 and continue to rise, then the current situation can be interpreted as a retest of the passed levels. In this case, the main task will be to restore the upward trend (1.3481) and continue the rise to the lower border of the monthly cloud (1.3584).

The short-term players are currently taking advantage of the lower halves. The pivot point for the continuation of the decline is now the low of last week (1.3175) and the support of the classic pivot levels 1.3113 (S2) and 1.3050 (S3). Meanwhile, the key resistances on the hourly chart are located today at 1.3256 (central pivot level) and 1.3325 (weekly long-term trend). A breakdown above will change the current balance of forces and will contribute to the formation of a rebound from the supports met in the upper halves.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)