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09.09.2020 11:13 AM
Markets are thinking about the US election: US indices, Oil 09.09.20

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S&P 500 daily. We see a significant correction. For fans of classical technical analysis - there's a bearish reversal pattern.

Oil:

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Oil CL rest for a day.

So, why is the US market falling? It is simply because the growth has run out of steam. The new historical highs are not rationalized against the background of unemployment at 10% and a fairly clear decline in the pace of economic recovery after the crisis.

But you can also say otherwise: ahead of the US presidential election in November and it is the President's office that forms economic policy-taxes first. Now Joe Biden, the democratic nominee has increased the advantage on questionnaires to 10% and this is a very serious bid for victory. There is a strong disappointment in Trump because he failed to fight the coronavirus given the success of the economy, and still the crisis leveled them. Trump did what he promised for 4 years or at least tried to "make America great again" but there was a huge racial conflict on the verge of a General uprising of African Americans within the United States.

Now Biden is more likely to win and if that happens, there'll be a change in tax policy, probably in the direction of raising taxes on large businesses which is negative for the stock market.

Investors will evaluate their plans as they wait for the elections in the winner's economy.

The US market and oil can be sold with growth attempts.

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