The EUR/USD pair moved in a sideways channel last week. During the start of the first week, the price moved up and tested the upper fractal of 1.2309 (red dotted line), but it declined afterwards, closing the weekly candle at 1.2217. Therefore, the price may continue to move down this week.

Trend analysis

The price from the level of 1.2217 (closing of the last weekly candle) may continue to decline this week to the level of 1.2098 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 14.6%. Upon reaching this level, the upward movement can possibly continue to the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal.

Figure 1 (weekly chart)

Comprehensive analysis:

• Indicator analysis - down
• Fibonacci levels - down
• Volumes - down
• Candlestick analysis - down
• Trend analysis - up
• Bollinger lines - up
• Monthly chart - down

A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis.

The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price is likely to have a downward trend this week, without an upper shadow in the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and no lower shadow (Friday - down).

The first lower target is 1.2095 – a pullback level of 14.6%. Upon reaching this level, the upward movement can possibly continue to the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal.

An alternative scenario: the price can decline from the level of 1.2217 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the target of 1.2095 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 14.6%. After reaching this level, it is possible to continue the downward movement to the target of 1.1943 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 23.6%.