The euro continues to rise, while the US dollar remains under pressure. Yesterday, the trial for the impeachment of Donald Trump started. The main claim of the Democrats is the call of Trump supporters for the attack on the US Capitol, which occurred in January 2021, which led to the death of five people.
Immediately after the accusations from the Democrats, there were tortuous and sometimes confrontational arguments from the defense team of Donald Trump, who insisted that the former US president is protected by the First Amendment, and cannot be convicted as a former leader of the country. After such weak arguments from the defense, even some Trump supporters in the Senate were outraged, saying that his lawyers did nothing to help the case. Sitting as jurors, the senators, many of whom themselves fled on the day of the attack, were forced to read the video materials of the case, in which Trump supporters resist the police and storm the halls of the Capitol, waving flags with the image of Trump. After the harsh arguments of the Democrats, some Trump supporters, who already had a clear opinion on this matter, disagreed on whether to find Trump guilty or acquit him on a single charge of inciting mass riots.
Senators rejected an attempt by Trump's allies to stop the trial. Instead, they affirmed the Senate's constitutional authority to rule on a case. As a result of the vote, 56 to 44 were in favor of the fact that Trump could be impeached even after he left office. The Constitution does not prohibit this. After that, six Republicans immediately joined the Democrats on the side of the prosecution. However, despite this turnaround, Trump still has nothing to worry about, as 56 votes still do not give the right to impeach. This requires two-thirds, which is 67 votes. At the end of the first day of the meeting, Republicans made it clear that they were unhappy with Trump's defense, many of them said they did not understand what it was leading to. The defense was particularly criticized by those Republican senators who are on the side of the Democrats in the prosecution. Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana said that the Trump team did a "terrible job", and Senator Susan Collins of Maine said that she was puzzled by the current process.
The trial will be delayed until the weekend, so we continue to closely monitor what is happening. And although the trial does not have a serious impact on the US dollar in the short term, the victory of the Democrats and the impeachment of Trump can seriously affect the political future of America and the Republican Party, which will lose its main leader as a presidential candidate in four years
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bulls tried to go beyond the resistance of 1.2130, but nothing good came of it. The decline in the purchasing power of the euro will be temporary, but a pause or a downward correction is necessary to continue the growth. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I advise you to count on support in the area of 1.2090, but a larger level is visible only in the area of 1.2050, where the bulls will try to build the lower border of the ascending price channel from February 4. It will be possible to talk about the continuation of the bull market only after buyers achieve a breakdown and consolidation of the level of 1.2130, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.2175 and 1.2220.
GBP
The British pound continues to boldly go up after vaccination against coronavirus in the UK continues to be carried out at a rapid pace. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently published a report that by February 15, about 15 million people in the country will receive the vaccine.
By the way, according to the latest data from the UK government, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine protects only two-thirds of the coronavirus. This suggests that repeated vaccination is not excluded, after which the indicators will be higher. The first results of the British vaccination program, the results of which will be published soon, show that the first dose reduced the risk of symptomatic infections among patients by 65% in young people and by 64% in people over 80 years of age. In recent studies, the numbers were much higher. The Sun reported that after two doses of the Pfizer vaccine, the risk of morbidity decreases to 79-84%, depending on age.
The AstraZeneca vaccine showed similar results. However, even though the actual results for effectiveness are lower than those obtained in clinical trials, the government of Boris Johnson will certainly welcome the first real data on vaccination in the UK. As has been repeatedly noted, the rate of recovery of the British economy and the timing of the lifting of quarantine restrictions, and the lifting of isolation measures depend on the rate of immunization of the population from the coronavirus. The successful mass introduction of the vaccine is the government's key to economic recovery in the second half of this year.
As noted above, according to the latest figures, more than 12.6 million people in the UK have already received their first doses of the Pfizer or Oxford - AstraZeneca vaccine. Of these, about 90% of people over the age of 80 were vaccinated. Boris Johnson said that after more than 15 million people receive the vaccine, the government will begin lifting the third national quarantine in the UK. It is expected that from March 8, school institutions will resume their work, after which other restrictions will gradually be lifted. And although the UK is one of the first countries to receive coronavirus vaccination so quickly, it is far from clear what its effectiveness will be against the new strains.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, after breaking the next annual high in the area of 1.3825, the bulls took a break and stopped at the intermediate resistance of 1.3855. However, the real target of buyers remains the area of 1.3880, which will not be so easy to get out of. It will be possible to talk about the formation of a downward correction of the trading instrument only after the bears push through the level of 1.3825, which will lead to the demolition of several stop orders and push the trading instrument to the lows of 1.3790 and 1.3720.
