EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair during the past day performed a rebound from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1873), a reversal in favor of the European currency, and began the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1952). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the level of 1.1873. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 100.0% will work in favor of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2021). On Monday, the information background was almost absent. The calendar of economic events was empty, and the topic of vaccination problems in the European Union is important.
During yesterday, the euro gained at price, but I also said that the movement of the pair is now very similar to the movement in the side corridor. The 4-hour chart shows this much better. Thus, given the high probability of a sideways move, I assume that there are no factors that would cause a reaction from traders right now. However, they may appear today, as the speeches of the Fed Chairman and the US Treasury Secretary will take place in America. Powell and Yellen may once again touch on the topic of inflation, the labor market, real unemployment, the yield of 10-year treasuries, and the economic recovery. The more aggressive and unexpected their comments are, the more likely the market will respond to their words. However, it should be noted that Powell and Yellen may touch on all of the above topics only in passing or not at all. Therefore, it is not a fact that their performances will bring the pair out of the sideways and force traders to trade more actively.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and continue a new process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.1836, near which they stopped last time. However, in general, the entire movement of the pair still resembles the movement in the side corridor between the levels of 1.1836 and 1.1988. At least, it is in this price range that the pair has been since March 5, that is, for more than two weeks.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 22, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty, so the information background was extremely weak or absent.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (16:00 GMT).
US - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver a speech (16:00 GMT).
On March 23, there are no economic events in the European Union, but in the United States, as I said above, there will be quite important speeches by Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, and this time it turned out to be overly aggressive. For the third week in a row, the "Non-commercial" category of traders gets rid of long contracts on the euro currency. This time, their number has decreased by almost 12 thousand. However, this time, the "Commercial" category of traders also got rid of 53 thousand long contracts and 75 thousand short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts decreased by 73.5 thousand, and short contracts – by 84 thousand. It is not clear what caused such a huge change in the mood of speculators and commercial traders, but the data is exactly that. The chances of ending the upward trend for the euro currency are growing.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair on Tuesday if there is a rebound from the level of 100.0% (1.1952) with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair were recommended at the rebound from the level of 1.1873 with a target of 1.1952. Now, this deal can be supported. I recommend new purchases when closing above the level of 1.1952 with a target of 1.2021.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
