EUR/USD – 1H.
Good afternoon, dear traders! The EUR / USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the US currency during the past day and started a new fall, also completing a close under the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1873. Thus, the process of falling can now be continued in the direction of the level of 1.1820, near which there is a whole scattering of different levels and lines that will try to contain the further fall of the pair. In particular, the lower border of the new downtrend corridor passes near this level, from which there is also a chance of a rebound. Thus, I believe that today the growth process can begin in the direction of the upper limit of the corridor. Yesterday was supposed to be very exciting and interesting. But he didn't. The speeches of Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell in the US Congress did not give traders any interesting information. The Fed chairman only noted that the US economy continues to recover and is recovering quite quickly, but "the end is still very far away." Perhaps the US currency felt some support from traders from this speech, the text of which was available before the speech itself. However, I want to draw the readers ' attention to the fact that Powell has repeatedly made similar statements before. Powell never denied that the economy is recovering at a very high rate, he only demanded that Congress approve new aid packages for the economy so that the growth rate does not decline. And it seems that the US government is going to meet these requests of Powell in double volume, as it is rumored that a new aid package of 2-4 trillion dollars is being prepared, which can be adopted by the summer of 2021. Thus, the US dollar is still showing growth, but it is not possible to draw an unambiguous conclusion why it is doing this.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes fell to the level of 1.1836. The rebound of quotations from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.2027. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the level of 1.1836 will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1729. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the uptrend corridor and a fall to the correction level of 261.8% - 1.1822. The rebound of the pair from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth. But the mood is now characterized as"bearish".
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
News overview:
On March 23, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty, and the events in America did not bring any new data to traders. However, even without them, traders were actively trading.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
European Union-Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (09-00 GMT).
European Union-Index of business activity in the service sector (09-00 GMT).
US - Change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12-30 GMT).
US-Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13-45 GMT).
US-PMI index for the service sector (13-45 GMT).
US-Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (14-00 GMT).
European Union-ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (15-40 GMT).
On March 24, the European Union will host a speech by Christine Lagarde, as well as the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. In America, there will be another speech by Jerome Powell, and business activity indices will also be released. And in addition to them – there is also a report on orders for durable goods. Thus, the information background today will be very strong.
COT(Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, and this time it turned out to be overly aggressive. For the third week in a row, the "Non-commercial" category of traders gets rid of Long contracts on the euro currency. This time, their number has decreased by almost 12 thousand. However, this time, the "Commercial" category of traders also got rid of 53 thousand Long contracts and 75 thousand Short contracts. Thus, the total number of Long contracts decreased by 73.5 thousand, and Short contracts – by 84 thousand. It is not clear what caused such a huge change in the mood of speculators and commercial traders, but the data is exactly that. The chances of ending the uptrend for the euro currency are growing.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair on Tuesday if a close is made under the area of 1.1822 – 1.1836 with targets of 1.1772 and 1.1729. Purchases of the pair are recommended when rebounding from the area of 1.1822 – 1.1836 with targets of 1.1873 and 1.1952.
TERMS:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
