EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued to fall during the last trading day and it was at the level of 1.1715 by the end of the day. And this morning, a close was made under this level, which now allows us to count on the continuation of the fall of quotes in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.1661). Although the calendars of economic events on Monday and Tuesday were empty, traders still found grounds for new sales of the euro and purchases of the dollar. First of all, the euro currency is negatively affected by the weak pace of vaccination, problems with the supply of vaccines, and the lack of consensus among the EU countries on this issue. In America, everything is much better. By the summer, the entire population of the country can get the necessary vaccination. Also, the US economy is recovering at a very high rate, which is noted by all analysts.
Of course, it is being restored at the expense of constant monetary surcharges, which amount to trillions of dollars. In the European Union, GDP will decline both in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. The new aid package in the United States has already been adopted and is being successfully implemented, however, the European Union has not even formed a recovery fund for 750 billion euros, which was agreed and approved last summer. Moreover, the German Constitutional Court suspended the entry into force of the law on the ratification of the restoration fund. The court ruled that the documents of the European Union do not allow the socialization of debts. Only 16 countries out of 27 have ratified the fund, and the European Commission will not be able to start raising funds and distributing them until all 27 countries have ratified the relevant domestic laws.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Thus, the growth process can now be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the process of falling can now be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). The general mood of traders remains "bearish".
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 30, Germany released the consumer price index, which accelerated to 1.7% y/y, and in the United States - an indicator of consumer confidence, which was significantly better than traders' expectations.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - consumer price index (12:00 UTC).
US - change in the number of employees from ADP (15:15 UTC).
On March 31, the European Union and the US will release two more important reports than yesterday. So I'm waiting for the market reaction to both of them. Although now traders do not need an information background. The dollar continues to grow non-stop.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be much calmer this time. The Non-commercial category of traders got rid of 1,766 long contracts and 953 short contracts during the reporting week. The numbers are very small, so I would say that there is almost no change. In general, over the past month, bull traders have strongly lost their positions, as a large number of long contracts were closed and short contracts were opened. If at the beginning of February the gap between the number of long and short contracts was threefold, at the moment it is less than twofold.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to sell the pair if it closes below the level of 1.1772 with a target of 1.1715. This goal has already been achieved. Now the sales can be held open with the target of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1661). Purchases of the pair are not recommended today, as there was no clear rebound from the level of 1.1715.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to provide current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
