The wave marking of the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous and looks quite clear. At the moment, the structure of the waves a-b-c-d-e looks fully equipped and complete. The only thing that can be allowed now is that c extends to e. However, the instrument could not continue to fall for the second day, so I still expect the construction of the downward trend section to be completed, which was observed in the last three months. However, given the current news background, which will be discussed below, it is impossible to avoid the option of pulling down the quotes. Perhaps in the framework of an extended e wave, perhaps in the framework of a more complex descending structure. The fact is that the news background is now on the dollar's side. Therefore, either the wave layout or the news background should win.

The countries of the European Union are beginning to quarantine again. French President Emmanuel Macron announced yesterday that the country will face a hard lockdown until the end of April. Earlier, Germany has already gone through it, and in many other EU countries, the authorities are preparing to impose a strict quarantine. The reason was the rapidly spreading "British" strain of the coronavirus. France currently ranks 4th in the world in terms of the total number of cases. In recent days, the number of daily diseases has doubled and is about 40-60,000. Every day, about 500 people are admitted to hospitals in critical condition. In many other EU countries, the situation is no better. Especially considering the approaching Easter, when many people go to church or gather for celebrations. Therefore, governments are already taking proactive measures and imposing restrictions. All this has a very negative effect on the euro. The European economy may start to slow down again. The vaccine situation remains difficult in the EU.

The EU has published the index of business activity in the field of production for March. Its value was almost the same as in February and is very high – 62.5. However, this is not the most important indicator for the economy. Let me remind you that inflation in the European Union fell (if we talk about the base indicator) from 1.1% Y/Y to 0.9% Y/Y, which caused disappointment in the markets and added new pressure on the euro. We can say that now the euro/dollar pair is teetering on the verge of not falling, which will already fit poorly into the current wave layout. The most important news on Friday will come from the United States. There will be the unemployment rate, Nonfarm Payrolls and wage report. The fate of the EUR/USD pair for the next few days or a week may be decided.

Based on the analysis, I temporarily abandoned the buy scenario, as the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level. So now short positions are recommended again with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1605, which is equal to 100.0% by Fibonacci. At the same time, the downward section of the trend is nearing its end, which you should not forget when opening shorts.

The wave layout of the upward section of the trend is still quite complete, five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began to be built immediately after it, takes a corrective, but quite understandable form. The assumed wave d turned out to be short, so now the process of building the assumed wave e continues.