GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair yesterday continued to move between the corrective levels of 50.0% (1.3793) and 61.8% (1..3764). Only tonight, a close was made under the level of 61.8%, which allows traders to count on the resumption of the fall in the direction of 76.4% (1.3728). However, this breakdown may be false, and the pair may return to its side corridor. In the UK, the information background was absent in recent days. Traders could only pay attention to the background from America, however, a fairly strong package of statistics did not provide any support for the dollar. Today, the situation is unlikely to change since the calendars of economic events in Britain and America are empty. The general news is as follows. In the UK, the issue of the Northern Ireland protocol is becoming increasingly acute. On the island of Ireland, mass riots and pogroms continue for the second week. People are dissatisfied with the implementation of the Brexit agreement and demand its revision. Earlier, London was afraid of such a development, so it strongly insisted on preventing the appearance of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. However, as we can see, the problems still started. On the issue of vaccination and the pandemic in Britain, everything is relatively calm. Vaccination continues at a high rate, and there is no third wave of pandemic on the island. Quarantine restrictions continue to be relaxed, which gives hope for an acceleration of the economy in the near future. At the same time, I cannot conclude that any of these factors currently affect the pound/dollar pair. Rather, bears and bulls are now in a state of confusion about which way to trade them. On the hourly chart, the picture is confusing. It is better to pay attention to the older charts.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated under the ascending trend line. Thus, the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish". However, the hourly chart shows better how the British dollar is moving right now. The movements are very complex, and there is no clear direction. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made another attempt to close under the ascending trend line, and this time it looks like a successful one. Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK economic news calendar was empty, and reports from the US had a minimal impact on the pair's movement.
US and UK news calendar:
UK - Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe will deliver a speech (09:00 UTC).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 UTC).
On Friday, the calendar of economic events in the UK is again empty, and no important statistics are expected in the US either.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of April 6 on the British dollar again showed the lack of a strong desire among traders to deal with this currency. During the week, speculators closed another 2,614 long contracts and opened 2,120 short contracts. Thus, their mood has shifted a little more in the direction of "bearish". Although in general, the situation is the same as for the European – the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the category of "Non-commercial" traders is twice as large (or so) as the number of short-contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators is still characterized as "bullish", so the growth of the British dollar may well be resumed. But now the charts of the pair's movement must form the corresponding graphical structures that support growth (trend lines, corridors).
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I do not recommend buying the British dollar now, as the quotes have closed under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart and there are similar closures on the older charts. I also do not recommend selling the pound sterling now, as the pair is located inside a side corridor.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
