EUR/USD – 1H.

During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the European currency and closed above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1989), which allowed the pair to continue the increase towards the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2067). The rebound of the pair's rate from the level of 127.2% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in quotes. The consolidation of quotes above the level of 1.2067 will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next level of 1.2117. Meanwhile, most of the trading community is trying to find an answer to the question: what was it? Why did the US currency quotes fall sharply on Monday, both in pair with the euro and in pair with the pound? After studying the entire information background of this day, it was not possible to find an answer to the question. On Monday, there was simply nothing important or interesting during the day to make the American feel so uncomfortable. Thus, I tend to take the view that bull traders simply continued to trade within the trend of recent weeks. The 4-hour chart clearly shows that the last weeks have passed in the growth of quotes. Thus, on Monday, the number of buyers of the pair could simply increase, which led to strong growth of the euro currency. To be more precise, the information background now should not cause the growth of the euro currency at all, since it is objectively much worse in the Eurozone than in America. In the US, the economy continues to recover at a high rate, and there are no problems with vaccination of the population. In the European Union, everything is exactly the opposite.

EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the pair to resume the growth process and close above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the probability of further growth increases towards the next level of 1.2223.

EUR/USD – Daily.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair came close to the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2080) and the descending trend line. If there is a rebound, it will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.1822). Closing quotes above the trend line will significantly increase the probability of the pair continuing to grow in the direction of the level of 1.2496.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.

Overview of fundamentals:

On April 19, the calendar of economic events in the European Union and the United States was empty. Thus, the information background did not have any impact on traders.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

On April 20, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are again empty. Thus, the information background will also be absent today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be quite neutral. During the reporting week, Non-commercial traders opened 2,260 long contracts and closed 2,258 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators became again a little more bullish. Given that the pair are growing on the two youngest charts, everything is logical. Moreover, in general, speculators also remain bullish, as the number of long contracts focused on their hands still exceeds the number of short contracts. Not as much as before, but still exceeds.

EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

I recommend selling the pair if there is a rebound from the level of 323.6% (1.2080) on the daily chart with a target of 1.1989. Purchases of the pair were recommended when closing above the level of 1.1989 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2027 and 1.2067. Both goals have been achieved. Now I recommend buying the pair when closing above the trend line on the daily chart.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.