In today's article on the main currency pair of the Forex market, we will summarize the results of the last month, the next five-day trading session, and also try to predict the further direction of the exchange rate.

Monthly

Against the background of positive changes, after the initially failed vaccination campaign against COVID-19 in the European Union, as well as not so bad macroeconomic indicators from the eurozone, which were expected earlier in April, the single European currency rate stopped its downward trend against the US dollar and moved to growth. For its part, the weakening of the US currency was influenced by the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), as well as the Biden administration's intentions to pour more than a trillion dollars into the country's financial system to support the economy and the population affected by the coronavirus epidemic. At the same time, the macroeconomic statistics from the United States of America can in no way be considered weak. Incoming data continues to show that the world's leading economy is recovering faster than the rest from the negative effects of COVID-19. In addition to these factors, most likely, there is a capital flow when investors leave the US dollar for other risky assets. It is facilitated by the decline in the attractiveness and demand for the "American" as a safe-haven currency, since the situation with the spread of COVID-19, except for some countries, primarily India, is gradually normalizing, and this is due to mass vaccination of the population, which the governments of virtually all countries have approached very seriously, increasing their pace.

If we go to the technical picture on the most senior timeframe and analyze the results of April trading, then, despite the growth of EUR/USD, everything is not as clear as it may seem at first glance. First, having shown the maximum values at 1.2150 last month, the euro bulls could not keep the quote at the achieved heights, and last month's trading ended at 1.2018. Secondly, the players on the rise of the exchange rate did not manage to overcome the orange 200 exponential moving average, located at 1.2056. They played a significant role as resistance, throwing the quote down. Nevertheless, according to the stretched grid of the Fibonacci instrument, the euro/dollar continues to be in an upward trend for the growth of 1.0636-1.2349. It can be judged by the corrective pullback to the level of 38.2 Fibo from the indicated growth and the subsequent rise of the quote to continue the implementation of the bullish scenario. In general, looking at the monthly chart, the impressions are twofold. However, I would still give more chances that the upward trend of EUR/USD in May will continue. Naturally, this can only be judged by the completion of the May trading, which only opened today. In the meantime, let's consider a smaller period.

Weekly

But here, the picture is largely different from the one we saw on the most senior timeframe. Following the trading results on April 26-30, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a decline of 0.63%. However, the point here is in the fall since there can be no constant price dynamics in the same direction. After the circled candle, which got its start from 1.1703 and was highlighted as soon as it appeared (and for a good reason), the pair strengthened for three weeks in a row. However, the attempts of the euro bulls to break through the pink resistance line, built on points 1.2349-1.2242, were not successful, as well as overcoming the strong technical zone of 1.2100-1.2150. A false break or a puncture of the pink line does not bode well for the players to increase the rate, especially since the last bearish candle was inside the body of the previous large bullish candle, and this is already a reversal pattern "Harami." There is only one solution to this problem in such a situation - it is a confident absorption of the last bearish candle by growth. By the way, investors will have no shortage of strong drivers for the price movement this week. Today, at 19:20 London time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, and on the last day of weekly trading, on May 7, data on the US labor market for April will be announced. In general, another important, and perhaps decisive, week for the foreign exchange market in general and the US dollar in particular. In the meantime, at the moment, successful positioning in both directions is not excluded. At the same time, it is better to consider purchases after short-term declines in the area of 1.1960-1.1950. I recommend that you take a closer look at the opening of sales after the same short-term rises in the area of 1.2075-1.2100. In both cases, before opening positions, it is better to enlist the support of the corresponding candle signals at smaller time intervals, which will be discussed in tomorrow's article on the main currency pair.