1. Volume analysis of ETH/USD from Binance
2. Long-term trend analysis
3. Mid-term trend analysis
4. Short-term trend analysis
5. Japanese candlestick analysis
6. Conclusion
7. Statistics
1. Volume analysis of ETH/TUSD from Binance
The analysis is based on the traded volume data on the daily chart from the Binance exchange. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the intraday movement of the highest traded volume level can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest traded volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Thus, if the highest traded volume goes up, it indicates an bullish trend. Otherwise, if the level goes down, it indicates a bearish trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is flat.
17.05.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 3,243
18.05.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 3,368
The POC has moved upward. The price is below two POC levels. The market is moving in a bearish trend. Thus, short positions can be considered.
2. Long-term trend analysis
A trend is your friend. Many traders are aware of this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only with the trend. Thus, your trades will be more profitable and less risky. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:
long-term
medium-term
short-term
These particular trends should be analyzed before you enter the market. Now, let's take a look at them.
The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, trades are conducted on the daily chart and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA 48). If the daily candlestick closes above EMA 48, it will indicate the bullish trend, and long positions can be considered. Otherwise, if the daily candlestick closes below EMA 48, it is the bearish trend, and you should enter short positions.
The price is above EMA 48. It is a bullish long-term trend. That is why you can enter long positions.
3. Mid-term trend analysis
The mid-term trend is the one on the 4-hour chart (4H). In this case, we will analyze the trend by using EMA 48. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the 4H chart, it will indicate the bullish trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48 on the 4H chart, it is the bearish trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.
The price is above EMA 48. It is a bearish mid-term trend. You can sell the instrument.
4. Short-term trend analysis
A short-term trend is the one on the 1H chart. It can show an entry point into the market. We will analyze the trend by using EMA 48. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the 1H chart, it is the bullish trend, and you should enter long positions. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48, it is the bearish trend. Consequently, you can opent short positions.
The price is below EMA 48. It is a bearish short-term trend. So, you can sell the instrument. The long-term trend, the mid-term trend, and the short-term trend are not in line.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis
A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily time frame. The daily candlestick is analyzed.
The daily candlestick has closed at the opening price. The extreme points are within the previous candlestick. It is a Doji candlestick pattern, having a short body and large shadows. Based on Japanese candlestick analysis, long and short positions can be considered.
6. Conclusion
- Volume analysis – SELL.
- Long-term trend analysis – BUY.
- Mid-term trend analysis – SELL.
- Short-term trend analysis – SELL.
- Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY/SELL.
Conclusion: You can buy and sell ETH/USD on May 19, 2021, since various analyses provide different forecasts.
7. Statistics
To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCH/USD. 3-months gains: 9%. Drawdown: 4.88% Statement:
I do not open new trades due to market uncertainty.
The risk per trade is 1% of a deposit. A Stop Loss for new trades is placed beyond the daily extreme points. We do not set a Take Profit because we will continue to move a Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.
Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.
Trade with the trend and generate profits!
