EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency on Monday and rose to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919). However, traders failed to close higher, so the pair rebounded from this level and has already started a new fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1837). Nevertheless, fixing the pair's rate above the corrective level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a resumption of growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.1985). The information background during Monday was very weak. The only event of the day - the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde did not impact traders, as she repeated all the sayings that she had already said many times. In particular, Lagarde reiterated that the prospects for the European economy are improving. However, it is not necessary to talk about any high recovery rates now. Earlier, Christine Lagarde and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that there could be no question of an early end to the PEPP program at this time. Thus, the ECB president once again made it clear that the regulator will not consider curtailing the stimulus program in the near future. Therefore, the euro was deprived of information support on Monday, but it still recovered a little. However, this growth is technical. After the pair's quotes fell by 285 points, a correction was necessary. Today, the European currency is unlikely to receive support from the information background during the day, as Philip Lane will speak again today. But in the evening, support from Jerome Powell is possible. Let me remind you that it was after the Fed meeting and Powell's speech last Wednesday that the strong fall of the euro/dollar pair began.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under a downward trend corridor. However, this does not change the essence of the graphical picture. The quotes performed a drop almost to the level of 1.1836, but there was no rebound from it. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the level of 1.1836 will allow us to expect a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 21, Christine Lagarde gave a speech in the European Union, but nothing interesting or important was said for traders. The information background was practically absent yesterday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane will deliver a speech (14:00 UTC).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (18:00 UTC).
On June 22, there will be new performances by Jerome Powell and Philip Lane, so the information background today may be average in strength.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report, which was released late, showed that speculators actively got rid of long and short contracts during the reporting week. A total of 20,645 long contracts and 32,360 short contracts were closed. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has again become more "bullish," which does not correspond to what is happening now for the euro/dollar pair. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the strong drop in the euro quotes occurred on the days that were not taken into account in the last report, so to understand the mood of the major players, you need to wait for the next report to be released.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair in the case of a new rebound of quotes from the level of 61.8% (1.1919) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1837 and 1.1772. I recommend buying the pair if the quotes close above the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.1985 and 1.2051.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
