To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to 1.1797 and 1.1822 and gave a clear plan of action from them. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what the signals were. We see that the reaction to the inflation data in the eurozone was relatively calm since the indicator coincided with the forecast of economists. Thus, we did not observe a surge of volatility in the first half of the day. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1797 led to the formation of a signal to buy the euro, after which there was an increase in the area of 1.1822. There were no signals formed since we fell just a few points short of updating the level.

The technical picture for the second half of the day and the action plan have not changed at all. A surge in market volatility will occur after the release of data on changes in the volume of retail trade in the United States, so we are waiting for the formations and open positions following the conditions fulfilled. The initial task of the bulls is to protect the support of 1.1797 and form a false breakdown on it, which will lead to the formation of an entry point similar to the morning one. The bulls will also place an equally important emphasis on the breakout of the resistance of 1.1822. Insufficient retail sales data and a test of this level from top to bottom form a new entry point into long positions to restore the euro to the maximum of 1.1849, where I recommend fixing the profits. The level of 1.1874 will be a more distant target. If the pressure on EUR/USD returns in the afternoon, and the bulls do not show themselves in the area of 1.1797, it is best not to rush with purchases. The optimal scenario is the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1773. You can buy the pair immediately for a rebound, counting on a reverse upward movement of 15-20 points within the day, only from a larger minimum of 1.1740.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears are in no hurry to return to the market before important data on retail sales in the United States. Thus, most likely, there will be a major movement only after the news is released. While trading is conducted in a narrow side channel, it is difficult to say whose side is advantageous. In the case of EUR/USD growth after the data, only the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1822 forms a new good signal for opening short positions, counting on the pair's fall to the support of 1.1797, which the sellers failed to cope with today. A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions with a longer-range target in the area of 1.1773, which acts as the minimum of this week. The longer-term target remains the support of 1.1740, the test of which will form a new downward trend for the pair. I recommend fixing the profit at the end of the week. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session and the lack of sellers' activity at the level of 1.1822, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1849. You can sell the pair only if a false breakdown is formed. I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only from the larger resistance of 1.1874, calculating a downward correction of 15-20 points. The next major level for sales is seen in the area of 1.1893.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 6, it was possible to observe a reduction in the overall positive net position due to the sharp growth of short positions. This balance of forces does not consider the growth of the pair, which was observed at the end of last week after the European Central Bank raised its inflation target to 2.0% and admitted that it would allow exceeding the target for some time in the future. It turned out to be enough for euro buyers to start building up long positions. Now the focus will be on the meeting of the European regulator, which will be held on July 22, and at which changes in monetary policy will be announced. Until then, any decline in the European currency will be considered a good reason to increase long positions. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions risen from 209,058 to the level of 212,998, while short non-commercial positions risen from 121,912 to 135,808. This week, there are no important fundamental statistics on the eurozone. Thus, the focus will be shifted to inflation in the US and retail sales volume. The further direction of the market depends on these indicators. But whatever they are, the key to the growth of the European currency is the economic recovery in the summer period. Thus, I recommend betting on the growth of risky assets. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 87,146 to the level of 77,190. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1928 to the level of 1.1862.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market without any direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility has decreased significantly, giving signals to enter the market based on the indicator.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.