GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday performed an increase to the corrective level of 1.3859, rebounded from it with a reversal in favor of the US currency, and resumed the process of falling towards the level of 1.3741, completing a close under the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3800). The rebound of quotes from the corrective level of 1.3741 will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British and some growth in the direction of 1.3800. Closing the pair's exchange rate below the level of 1.3741 will increase the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.3679). The information background of Friday was relatively weak for the Briton. Apart from the retail trade report, there was nothing in the US. The US dollar has been growing in price for most of the day. However, its growth began earlier than the retail trade report, and it did not show any growth against the euro. Thus, I am inclined to believe that traders have become more active after several days of downtime based on some information from the UK.
And in the UK, there is something to pay attention to. Health Minister Sajid Javid fell ill with the "coronavirus," and since Boris Johnson regularly communicated with him, he also went into self-isolation. It is the second time. Yesterday, 54 thousand new cases of the disease were recorded in the UK, and today all quarantine measures are being canceled. Such is the fight against the epidemic in the British way. The British authorities have repeatedly stated that they intend to fight the virus by vaccinating the entire population. However, most of the British population has already received both doses of the vaccine, which does not stop the spread of the virus and all its new strains too well. The British Medical Association called Boris Johnson's decision to relax the quarantine "irresponsible and dangerous for the British people." Earlier, the British authorities have already come under criticism for their actions during the pandemic. A former adviser to Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, made loud statements a couple of months ago. He accused the entire government of incompetence and frankly wrong actions in confronting the pandemic in 2020.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). Thus, the fall of quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3642). A lot will depend on the level of 1.3741 on the hourly chart since earlier quotes have already performed two rebounds from it. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, the calendar of economic events in the UK was empty, and two reports were released in the US, which did not cause any reaction from traders. Thus, the information background did not impact the pair's movement, but the dollar still showed strong growth.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are empty. Thus, there will be no information background today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on July 13 for the British showed that the mood of major players is again becoming more "bearish." During the reporting week, speculators increased 1,729 short contracts and got rid of 8,054 long contracts. Thus, the "bullish" mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has weakened again. Over the past four weeks, both for the euro and for the pound, the mood of traders has become more "bearish." However, the changes in the British are still less pronounced. However, it is for the British that the number of long and short contracts in the hands of speculators is already almost the same. Thus, it is already possible to talk about the lack of an advantage for bull traders.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend new purchases of the British with the targets of 1.3800 and 1.3859 if the pair performs a rebound from the level of 1.3741 on the hourly chart. I recommend selling the pound today if the closing is made under the level of 1.3741 on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3679 and 1.3642.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
