The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument remains unchanged. The instrument still traverses no more than 50 points per day and there are rarely exceptions. The instrument has gained a little more than 100 basis points over the past five days, which still gives reason to assume the completion of the construction of the downside trend. But 100 points is too little to say with certainty about the completion of an entire section. The wave counting of the supposed wave e looks quite convincing now, however, given the weakness of the current pullback from the lows reached, the construction of the downward trend may resume. Everything will depend on the demand for the US dollar, even though it sounds rather dull. However, as long as there is convincing wave counting, it is foolish to ignore it or try to correct it with the news background. So far, the construction of a new upward trend has presumably begun, and the variant with the complication of the downward trend section is a reserve one. Therefore, I expect the quotes to continue to rise.

The news background for the pair was quite serious last Friday. To begin with, reports on personal income and spending of the US population, as well as an index of personal spending, were released on this day. However, of course, all these reports faded into the background, because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech took place in Jackson Hole (only formally, but in fact in video format), on which the markets were betting from the very beginning of the week. I have already said in my last reviews that Powell could surprise the markets, but did not. Almost all key issues and topics for the market were covered in his speech. However, no new information followed on any of them. The most important thing that the markets did not wait for was the information that the Fed is ready to start curtailing the QE program. Also, the markets did not wait for the approximate timing of the start of the reduction in the volume of this program. Therefore, the demand for the dollar slightly fell on Friday, but by and large the markets had nothing to analyze and nothing to react to. Now we need to wait for his next speeches. We are already familiar with the rhetoric of his colleagues - members of the FOMC board and heads of the federal reserve banks, but Powell has not yet confirmed in any way that he is ready to start phasing out QE in September. He noted that "perhaps it would be appropriate this year," but such a formulation is unlikely to please the markets.

Based on the analysis carried out, I conclude that the construction of the descending section could have been completed around 1.1704, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci. Wave e received a pronounced five-wave internal structure, so now I am still waiting for the beginning of the construction of an upward set of waves. The markets are still holding the instrument above the 17th figure, so I advise you to buy the euro for each MACD signal "up" in the hope of building a new upward set.

Major scale wave counting looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last segment of the trend quite unexpectedly took on a more complex form, but it still ended (presumably) in the same place as the previous three-wave segment.