EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the European currency on Thursday and resumed the growth process toward the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919) on the hourly chart. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 76.4% allowed the growth to resume. A rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the trend line, which continues to characterize the mood of traders as bullish. However, today, graphical analysis and technical signals will mean little if the Nonfarm Payrolls report shows a value that does not coincide with the forecast. Let me remind you that traders are currently waiting to increase the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector by 750 thousand in August. If the actual value is much lower, then the US dollar will almost completely continue its decline. If the real value is much higher than the forecast, this can lead to a serious drop in the pair's quotes, and it is not a fact that it will end near the trend line.
The pair's exchange rate can perform a closing under it as well. However, other economic reports will also be important today. They will be less significant, but traders can also consider them when trading the euro/dollar pair. For example, the ISM business activity index in the United States, which is considered a very important indicator. Or the index of business activity in the services sector of the European Union, the unemployment rate in the United States, and the change in the average salary in the United States. All these reports will somehow overlap with the Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, they can also cause a certain reaction of traders. Thus, today it is necessary to start trading in the morning, as European news will arrive early on the market. And in the afternoon, you need to be ready for any development of events.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes increased to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1782). Closing quotes above the level of 1.1890 will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.1978). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the services sector (08:00 UTC).
EU - change in retail trade volume (09:00 UTC).
US - unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the average hourly wage (12:30 UTC).
US - ISM Index of business activity in the service sector (14:00 UTC).
On September 3, the calendar of economic events in the European Union contains not the most important entries. All the most interesting things will happen today in the USA. In the first place is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, where I recommend paying the most attention.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders during the reporting week became much more "bearish." Major players closed 39,475 long contracts for the euro and 7,201 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 194 thousand. Moreover, for the first time in a long time, it fell below 200 thousand. Such a strong reduction in long contracts indicates that the euro is still under pressure from traders. However, at the same time, I draw attention to the fact that the fall of the European currency in the long term remains extremely weak. And in the last week, the euro has been growing in pair with the US dollar.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend staying in the pair's purchases with the target of 1.1919 on the hourly chart since the closing was made above the level of 1.1837. I recommend selling if there is a rebound from the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart, with a trend line.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
