GBP/USD – 1H

Hello, dear traders! On Monday, GBP/USD fell to the 38.2% retracement level of 1.3830 and then rebounded from it on the H1 chart. Today, the price has returned to this level and is likely to attempt to close below it. If the quote consolidates, the ascending trend line will be seen as the pair's next support level. This line also indicates bullish market sentiment. In case of a rebound from this mark, the price is expected to reverse and rise to the 76.4% retracement level of 1.3892. Meanwhile, if the quote consolidates below the trend line, the price is likely to go down to 50.0% and 38.2% retracement levels of 1.3792 and 1.3747 respectively. It has been reported that the United Kingdom registered 48 cases of a new COVID strain, the Mu variant. Scientists are concerned that the newly identified variant may be able to evade the immunity people have developed from vaccinations or previously having the virus.

According to the WHO, the new strain has spread across 39 countries. The UK also registers an increase in new common COVID cases. Based on Johns Hopkins coronavirus data, around 247K people were infected in the UK in the previous week. A spike in cases is registered in the United States as well. Speeches of MPC Members Michael Saunders and Catherine L. Mann are scheduled for today. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic calendar in the US does not contain any important events. Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech tomorrow. Therefore, a quiet day in the market is expected today.

GBP/USD – 4H

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD rose to the 76.4% and 23.6% retracement levels of 1.3892 and 1.3870 respectively. Then, the quote reversed and headed towards 1.3836 and 1.3791. A rebound from any of these marks is likely to resume the upward trend to 1.3892. Neither of the indicators is forming divergence today. Traders should focus their attention on the trend line on the H1 chart.

United Kingdom macroeconomic calendar:

(05-10 UTC) - MPC Member Catherine L. Mann Speaks

(07-30 UTC) - MPC Member Michael Saunders Speaks

On Tuesday, the UK's and the US's macroeconomic calendars do not contain any important events. It remains to be seen whether the MPC members say something new or important.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The latest COT report as of August 31 logged an increase in bullish sentiment among Non-commercial traders. Speculators closed 2,467 long and 4,809 short positions. Speculators are holding more short positions than long ones. Overall, sentiment remains bearish. The pound sterling is rising in value. Meanwhile, traders struggle to close below 1.3600. In other words, it is not clear whether the sterling will continue falling. Sell signals should be generated on the chart, and they should come in line with the results of the COT report.

Outlook for EUR/USD:

Today, traders should consider opening long positions with the target at 1.3892 if the price rebounds from the 61.8% retracement level of 1.3837 (or 1.3830 or the trend line) on the H1 chart. Meanwhile, short positions should be considered if the quote closes below the trend line on the H1 chart with the target at 1.3792 and 1.3747.

TERMS:

Non-commercial traders are large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and large investors.

Commercial traders are commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency not to obtain speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import transactions.

Non-reportable positions are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.