Wave pattern

The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument continues to look quite difficult due to deep corrective waves as part of the correction section of the trend. The instrument made a successful attempt to break through the low of the previous waves a and e. Thus, adjustments were made to the wave pattern and now it has acquired the appearance of a downward trend section. Nevertheless, this downward section may already be completed, or it may acquire a much longer appearance.

The picture above shows that the last wave C can already be completed if it has taken a three-wave form. If it takes a five-wave form, then after the completion of the current wave d, the decline in the quotes of the instrument within the wave e may resume. And this wave d can already be completed. If this assumption is correct, then the decline of the instrument will continue with targets located near the minimum of wave c, that is, about 34 figures. A successful attempt to break through the peak of wave b will lead to the need to introduce new refinements to the current wave counting.

U.S. economy gave up strongly in the third quarter.

The exchange rate of the Pound/Dollar instrument increased by 25 pips on Thursday, but the amplitude of movements was very weak at the same time. There were no events of the scale of a central bank meeting or a speech by the president of the central bank in the UK and the USA. Thus, the entire news background was reduced only to the U.S. GDP report in the third quarter, which disappoint the markets.

In the second quarter, the growth of the American economy was 6.7%, but the third only recorded 2%. The markets expected a higher value, so the weakening of the US currency is not surprising. But the point is precisely that the current wave counting implies a decrease in the instrument, not its increase. In addition, the dollar did not decline so much after the release of the weak report. Thus, the wave pattern does not require adjustments and still suggests an increase in dollar quotes. But with such a news background, it will be quite problematic to do this.

So far, we are talking about only one report, and next week there will be a meeting of the Fed, which can dot the "I." If the Fed announces the tapering of the QE program after the ECB, then the demand for the US dollar can seriously grow, which will ensure the necessary movement of the pound/dollar instrument. But until November 3, the movements may not be the best. Until there is a successful attempt to break the 1.3869 level, which corresponds to 23.6% Fibonacci, the construction of wave e remains a priority.

General conclusions

The wave pattern continues to raise some questions, although it looks quite convincing so far. It received a downward view, but not an impulsive one. The expected wave d has completed its construction, so I advise you to sell the instrument based on the construction of the expected wave e in C with targets located near the level of 1.3270.

Starting from January 6, the construction of a new downward trend section began, which can turn out to be almost any size and any length. At this time, I'm still counting on building another downward wave, since wave A turned out to be a five-wave. However, wave C may already be completed. Everything will depend on a successful or unsuccessful attempt to break through the peak of wave b in C.