Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a five-week low 101.15 this morning. It is undermined by the selling of yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.86% to 17.82, S&P fell 0.28% Friday) amid ongoing jitters about Ukraine-Crimeans voted on Sunday to break away from Ukraine and join Russia by a margin of 93% to 7%, according to exit polls reported by Russian news outlets, in a referendum condemned as illegal by the U.S. and EU - and uncertainty about the outlook for China after recent weak economic data and official warning about future defaults on Chinese bonds. China on Saturday doubled the band in which the CNY is allowed to move each day to 2% above and below a fixing rate it sets each morning, the first change to the trading band since April 2012. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japan exporter sales and weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.42 versus 79.59 early Friday) on unexpected fall in U.S. University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index to 79.9 in March from 81.6 end-February (versus forecast for rise to 81.8) and surprise 0.1% on-month drop in U.S. February PPI (defying forecast for +0.2% increase). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers abd loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. ital data, 1315 GMT U.S. February industrial production and capacity utilization, 1400 GMT U.S. March NAHB housing market index.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, the five-day moving average is falling below the 15-day MA.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.15. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 100.65. The pivot point stands at 102.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.40 and the second target at 102.80.

Resistance levels:
102.40
102.80
103.15

Support levels:
101.10
100.65
100.35