Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a surplus in February, with rising exports of autos and energy outpacing record imports.The surplus of $290 million exceeded the $200 million surplus that was the median of 17 predictions in a Bloomberg survey. January’s deficit was revised to $337 million from an initially reported $177 million, Statistics Canada said Thursday.

In the currency view, Canadian's exporters may benefit this year from a weaker currency and quicker economic growth in the U.S. Three-quarters of Canada’s exports were shipped to the U.S. in 2013, while the currency weakened 6.4% over the last six months.

USD/CAD has been in a consolidation phase waiting for a direction. The level of 1.1 looks like a key level between bulls and bears. It has been hovering at 1.1 levels for last 7 trading sessions in the daily chart. On the down side, if the pair breaks and closes below the 1.1 level, it will drift all the way to 1.0955, 1.0910 and 1.0810 with sl 1.1078 (March 28 high). On the up side, if the pair holds the 1.1 in today's trading session (cb), it will fly up to 1.108. Closing above it will cause a new bull run towards the higher levels.

Intraday-

In the H4 chart, RSI favors buy side. Traders can enter fresh longs only above the level of 1.1045 with targets at 1.1056, 1.1075 immediately. Above this, 1.11 and 1.1170 levels will be possible. Sellers can short only below 1.1 levels for targets at 1.0955 and 1.0910 levels.

joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com