4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 43p - 101p - 117p - 54p - 39p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 71p (71p).

On January 30, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a weak downward movement. Instrument volatility declined again; yesterday, for example, the pair passed only 40 points during the day. Today, the picture is no better, although the first macroeconomic reports have already been published in the United States. Thus, the report on the change in the level of employment in the private sector from ADP turned out to be stronger than the forecast values. Now we are waiting for preliminary data on GDP. Late in the evening, the Federal Reserve will hold a press conference, during which rhetoric, forecasts and expectations on economic indicators and concerns of the regulator should be known. The combination of these statements will show the overall picture, which traders will have to characterize as "dovish" or "hawkish". We do not expect any high-profile statements from the Fed today. Most likely, the accompanying statement and press conference will be held in "general", neutral statements, which is unlikely to cause serious bursts of activity in the market. Based on this, we also do not expect a strong strengthening of the US currency. In general, a picture is obtained when neither the euro nor the US dollar have enough weighty factors for a strong strengthening. From a technical point of view, the pair continues to be adjusted, as evidenced by the MACD indicator. The correction target is the Kijun-sen line. Overcoming the resistance level of 1.1453 will open the way for the pair to new local heights.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues the weakest correction, which is signaled by the MACD indicator. The volatility remains low, in case the MACD indicator turns upwards, it will be possible to consider the longs with the targets of 1.1453 and 1.1487.

Sell positions will become relevant no earlier than the consolidation of the price below the critical line with the targets at 1.1345 and 1.1325. Market expectations from the Fed meeting are neutral, judging by the activity in the last hours before the announcement of the results.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.