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18.08.2017 01:51 AM
ECB Minutes Crashed the Euro

The euro fell from its highs at the start of the day after a major increase yesterday on the background of the publication of the Federal Reserve's minutes.

Today's data on the level of inflation and the growth of the positive balance of foreign trade were dismissed by the market, as all attention was focused on the minutes of the European Central Bank, which quickly returned the advantage to buyers of the US dollar.

According to the minutes of the July meeting, the ECB prefers to avoid giving signals that may be misinterpreted, as they are concerned about possible overshooting in the markets, especially in the currency market. This is about the growth of the European currency by more than 12% since the beginning of this year, which could adversely affect exports and prevent the economic recovery in the third quarter of this year.

The ECB also said that consensus was reached on the need for a stable policy, but it still needs to make convincing progress on the inflation front.

According to statistics agency Eurostat's report today, inflation was in July this year 1.3% compared to the same period in 2016, which is contrary to the plans of the central bank, which expects to reach the target level, located just below 2%. These data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

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The ECB also drew attention to the fact that weak financing conditions can not be taken for granted, as they are largely conditioned by the soft policy of the central bank.

As noted above, the good data on the eurozone did not support the euro.

The positive foreign trade balance of the eurozone in June this year has grown. This happened due to a larger reduction in imports.

According to the EU statistical agency, exports in June this year fell by 1.9% compared with May, while imports decreased by 4.1%. The positive balance of foreign trade of the eurozone amounted to 22.3 billion euros against 19 billion euros in May.

As for the technical picture, the return to weekly lows leaves the sellers of the euro moderately good opportunities. Closing the day below 1.1680 may lead to further downward movement in the trading instrument with the update of new lows of 1.1650 and 1.1600. In case the euro returns to resistance level of 1.1720, a larger upward correction with the update 1.1760 and 1.1790 can be expected tomorrow.

The British pound was also under pressure in tandem with the US dollar, despite the growth in retail sales.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July of this year, retail sales grew by 0.3% compared with June this year. Economists predicted that sales will grow by 0.4%. Compared with July last year, sales increased by 1.3%.

Jakub Novak,
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