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04.06.2019 05:02 PM
EUR and AUD: Weak inflation in the eurozone brought euro buyers to their senses. Australian dollar shows strength after a series of weak reports

The European currency failed to hold at weekly highs after the release of a more than disappointing report on the annual inflation rate in the eurozone, which slowed sharply, pushing even further expectations of the European Central Bank to reach the target level of 2.0%.

Oddly enough, these data came out just at the time of the slowdown in the eurozone economy, which increases the chance of a more serious decline in the future.

According to data, in May this year, the annual inflation rate in the eurozone slowed to 1.2% from 1.7% in April, which is a weak indicator. Let me remind you that the inflation target set by the Central Bank is slightly less than 2%.

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Especially the decline in inflation was noted in the service sector, where prices after the Easter holidays returned to their normal levels. As for the core inflation, which does not take into account volatile categories, then the annual rate in May slowed to 0.8% from 1.3%.

The only thing that leaves a gap for the ECB and a chance to restore inflationary pressure is today's report on the eurozone labor market.

According to data, the unemployment rate in the eurozone in April fell to 7.6% from 7.7% in March this year. The number of unemployed fell by 64,000.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, buyers of risky assets have serious problems with further growth, and a breakthrough in support of 1.1230 can lead to a deeper downward correction, which will block all yesterday's growth observed in the North American session. However, there are some speeches by a number of Fed representatives, including the Chairman of the Committee, Jerome Powell, who probably will not avoid the problem of interest rates.

The Australian dollar remains in place after a series of negative news. Today, it became known that the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the key interest rate by 25 bp up to 1.25%.

RBA Manager Philip Lowe said that lower interest rates are still possible and there are real reasons to expect their further decline. The RBA Manager noted that the rates were reduced in response to the growing trade risks, as the economic prospects are quite stable and there is no deterioration yet.

Then came the report on retail sales, which in April this year fell by 0.1% compared to March.

After that, data on consumer confidence in Australia also did not lead to a sharp decline in the AUDUSD pair. According to the report, consumer confidence in Australia fell by 1.4% last week.

It ended with the fact that the Australian dollar did not respond to reports that the administration of US President Donald Trump was considering the possibility of introducing tariffs for imports from Australia. First of all, we are talking about the import of aluminum.

Jakub Novak,
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