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20.07.2021 12:09 PM
GBP/USD analysis and forecast for July 20, 2021

At yesterday's trading, the British pound fell significantly against the US dollar. It is not known for certain if this factor was influenced by the self-isolation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Anyway, on Monday, the US currency dominated a wide range of the market. Such a demand for the "American" was probably caused by the situation with the spread of the COVID-19 delta strain. However, despite the increase in the number of infected people, the British government is not yet considering options to cancel the previously announced lifting of several restrictions. If we generally characterize the situation with an increase in the number of cases in individual countries, market participants fear that this could significantly harm the economic recovery. And after the removal of all social restrictions and the self-isolation of Boris Johnson, it cannot be excluded that the sales of the British currency will increase. Since there was no review on the pound/dollar pair yesterday, I suggest starting it and considering price charts from a weekly scale.

Weekly

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First of all, pay attention to the full body of the last weekly candle and the absence of its lower shadow. It usually indicates the strength of sellers and promises a continuation of the downward scenario. At the moment, this is what is happening. In less than two trading days, the pound has already demonstrated a fairly intense decline. At the moment of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading below 1.3800 and attempts to break through the strong support level of 1.3667. In the event of a breakdown of this level, there will be good prospects for further decline. If the mark of 1.3667 stands and is only punctured, and the current weekly candle forms a long lower shadow, there will be a high probability of subsequent growth of the pound/dollar pair and a return to the price area of 1.3800-1.3900. And then it's up to the market to decide. Judging by the weekly timeframe, these are the prospects for the GBP/USD pair.

Daily

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We observe the entire scale of yesterday's soaring, as well as the closing of the candle under the orange 200 exponential average. Yesterday, the bears conducted reconnaissance on the pound, trying to determine the strength of the support level of 1.3667. It can be seen that the exploration was successful, and the pair began to break through this level. It has already been subjected to an aggressive breakdown attempt, but so far, it has resisted. Moreover, today's daily candle has a very long lower shadow at the moment. The main question is whether the bulls for the pound can return the quote above 1.3800 and finish today's trading. But even if this does not happen, and the shadow remains about the same length, the signal will remain bullish. There is a very persistent struggle between bulls and bears. Whoever wins will control the course of trading on GBP/USD. If we carefully (since the situation seems to be a turning point) touch on trading recommendations, then, in my opinion, after growth attempts, the pair should be sold near strong levels that have already been indicated, as well as the inability to break through them. If a bullish candlestick analysis model is formed, consider buying on smaller charts tomorrow.

Ivan Aleksandrov,
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