The pound loses ground versus the USD again after a minor bullish movement. A valid breakdown below 1.2904 and another lower low will confirm a GBP/USD further drop in the nearest days.

GBP/USD is trading inside of a critical support area, that's why we should wait for a confirmation that the price will drop deeper. The UK is to release the Retail Sales data today, the indicator is expected to increase by 0.7% in January after a 0.6% decrease in the previous month. Poor US data and good UK figures could push GBP/USD higher again in the short term, but if the UK numbers disappoints, the pound should drop aggressively.

GBP/USD has increased a little to retest the broken uptrend line (ascending channel's support) and the median line (ML) of the major blue ascending pitchfork. The pair could drop significantly if it closes and stabilizes below the 1.2904 static support.

The price has tested the former chart pattern as well, it was rejected by the major confluence area formed at the intersection of the resistance levels, so GBP/USD is under selling pressure right now. In case of a valid breakdown below the 1.2904 - 1.2900 area, the next downside targets are seen at 50% retracement level and at the inside sliding line (sl) of the orange descending pitchfork.

We have a down channel between the inside sliding lines (sl1 and sl) of the orange descending pitchfork, GBP/USD is expected to approach and reach the downside line (sl) of this pattern after the failure to retest the upside line (sl1).

• Trading Tips

A valid breakdown below the 1.2904 level and another lower low, a drop below the 1.2871 low, will give us a great chance to go short on this pair with the target at the 50% level and lower at the sliding line (sl). GBP/USD will register a major drop if the price ignores the next downside targets. The major downside targets are seen at the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork and at the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork.

The potential bearish movement could be invalidated only by a false breakdown below 1.2904 static support, so a pin bar or a bullish engulfing here could signal another bullish momentum.