4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -109.6777

Despite the complete absence of important news on Monday, July 8, the EUR/USD pair still continued its downward movement. There was an extremely uncertain attempt to start an upward correction, however, it ended with a rebound from the Murray level of "4/8". Today, July 9, the only significant event of the day will be the Fed's speech before the US Congress. Jerome Powell will definitely touch upon the issues of monetary policy, the prospects of economic growth of the country, and will also answer the question of deputies. The question is, what information will get to the media and will there be something for traders to pay attention to? It is unlikely that Powell will directly say that he will reduce rates, or that inflation is at an extremely low value (especially since this is not the case). But even in the case of frankly "dovish" rhetoric of Powell, as we have repeatedly said, in the confrontation between the euro and the dollar, the former still has weaker positions. The ECB can also reduce the key rate in the near future, but unlike the Fed rate, the European rate will become negative. Thus, we believe that, firstly, there will be no "dovish" rhetoric, and secondly, if the US dollar is under pressure, it will be only for a short period of time. From a technical point of view, Heiken Ashi continues to paint the bars in blue, which signals a continuous downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its downward movement. Now, therefore, it is recommended to continue to sell the euro to the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1169 before the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi up.

It is recommended to buy the euro after traders consolidate back above the moving average line, which will change the trend to an upward one, with the first target of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.