The results of the November meeting of the Bank of England supported the British currency, strengthening the bullish sentiment for the GBP/USD pair. And although the central bank increased the volume of the asset purchase program, investors were not upset - on the contrary, the pound perked up and settled within the 30th figure. Of course, the pair's growth momentum is primarily due to the weakening of the dollar, but nevertheless, the British central bank also provided support.
There are two main messages that were announced at today's central bank meeting. Firstly, the BoE intends to support the British economy (including by expanding QE), and secondly, not by reducing the rate to the negative area. At least this scenario is not yet considered in the context of practical implementation. This alignment was to the liking of investors, despite the dovish remarks expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the final press conference.
In particular, he said that the prospects for economic recovery remain "unusually uncertain." There are signs of weakening consumer spending, and the amount of idle capacity in the economy remains "very significant". Bailey also mentioned the second wave of coronavirus that swept the UK. He quite reasonably suggested that the tough quarantine, which was approved by the British Parliament just yesterday, would again hit inflation and the main indicators of the labor market. Let me remind you that the new semi-lockdown began to operate from today and will last at least until December 2. During this period, restaurants and pubs will have to shut down, as will gyms and shops that do not sell essential goods. Commenting on this decision of the British Parliament, Bailey noted that the COVID-19 epidemic will have "an indirect sustained impact on the economy." But here, too, he added that an additional 150 billion pounds under the QE program will help bring inflation back to target levels over the next two years.
Take note that the Committee members voted unanimously to increase the size of the QE program - as well as to keep the interest rate at the current level of 0.1%. In the pre-crisis times, such a result would have exerted significant pressure on the pound, but in the current environment, amid the coronavirus crisis, traders are content with maintaining the status quo on the rate and are optimistic about the unexpected news of the expansion of the stimulus program.
With regard to the negative rate, the BoE signalled that its work examining the effects on negative rates had not yet been completed, therefore it is inappropriate to talk about it on a practical plane. It is worth recalling here that they have been studying this issue for the third consecutive month - central bank economists interact with the country's financial institutions, simulating and analyzing the consequences of this step. Financial institutions must send their responses to the relevant requests by November 12. That is, by the December meeting, the results of this kind of poll will probably be known.
According to preliminary data, the dovish initiative of the central bank caused an extremely negative reaction not only from large banks, but also from depositors. And among the members of the Committee there is no consensus on this matter. In their public speeches, many of them (in particular, David Ramsden, Gertjan Vlieghe, Andy Haldane) opposed such an extraordinary and controversial step. And judging by the fact that the central bank refrained from substantive discussion of negative rates at the November meeting, this issue is unlikely to receive support from the Committee in the near future - at least this year. These conclusions made it possible for buyers of GBP/USD to strengthen their positions, especially against the backdrop of a weakening dollar.
The dollar is gradually falling in response to a sharp decline in anti-risk sentiment in the market. Joe Biden secured the support of 264 electors against the 270 needed. The vote count is still ongoing in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The Democratic leader needs to maintain victory in those states where he is already in the lead and win in at least one of the key states (now the focus is Nevada). Trump's task is much more difficult - in addition to retaining victory in his states, he must conquer several key regions.
But the market, by all appearances, has already drawn its conclusions by appointing the Democrat as the 46th US president, welcoming the approaching end of the phase of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the elections. In my opinion, such conclusions are fully justified, since the majority of the uncounted votes are mail votes. And according to numerous studies, supporters of the Democratic Party prefer to vote by mail. Therefore, we can assume that Biden is already one foot in the White House. In turn, Trump prepares and files lawsuits. However, according to many American political scientists, lawyers, as well as observers from the OSCE, these claims, as a rule, will not have a judicial perspective.
All this suggests that the GBP/USD pair retains the potential for further growth until the Brexit issue is back on the agenda. At the moment, the price is testing the resistance level 1.3070 (the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). The first (and, so far, the main) target of the growth movement is the 1.3150 level - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe.
