1. Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).
2. Analysis of the long-term trend.
3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.
4. Analysis of the short-term trend.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis.
6. Conclusions.
7. Statistics.
1. Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).
We will first analyze the movement of bitcoin, since it is the flagship of the cryptocurrency market. The analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the "Footprint Profile" theory, in which the movement of the maximum volume level for the day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the displacement of the maximum amount of levels up indicates an upward trend. Moving the maximum volume level down indicates a downtrend. The chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.
- 01.02.21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 33975
- 02.02.21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 34580
POC moved up, the reaction of the price after the infusion of this volume is upward. There is a possibility of the continuation of the upward movement.
2. Analysis of the long-term trend.
The trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying, but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:
- long-term;
- medium-term;
- the short-term.
It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any transaction. This is what we will do in this analysis.
The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be made on a daily timeframe and held for several days. The daily trend is analyzed using the EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candle closed above the EMA(48), then we have an upward trend and we should buy. If the daily candle closed below the EMA(48), it means that the trend is downward and we should sell.
The chart clearly shows an upward trend, the price is higher than the EMA (48), so in this situation, only purchases should be considered.
3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.
In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The EMA(48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used for the analysis. If the H4 candlestick closed above the EMA(48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candle closed below the EMA(48), it means that the trend is downward and should be sold.
Several H4 candles closed above the EMA (48) and are holding higher. This means that the medium-term trend is upward and coincides with the long-term trend, ergo you should buy.
4. Analysis of the short-term trend.
The short-term trend, which can show well the entry point to the market, will be considered a trend on the H1 timeframe. The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will help us. If the H1 candle closed above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candle closed below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.
Several H1 candles closed behind the EMA (48). Strong upward trend; long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends are the same, you should buy.
5. Japanese candle analysis.
The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is used for the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candle.
Closing the daily candle upwards, the candle is white. The high is above than the high of the previous candle, which indicates an upward movement. The candlestick configuration is similar to Harami with confirmation, yesterday's candlestick. Since this candle configuration has been confirmed, an upward movement is likely, so you should buy.
6. Conclusions.
- Volume analysis: POC moved up, price reaction is up - BUY.
- Long-term trend: up - BUY.
- Medium-term trend: up - BUY.
- Short-term trend: up - BUY.
- Japanese candlestick analysis - BUY.
- General conclusion: 03.02.21 - it is preferable to buy.
7. Statistics.
To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, it is necessary to keep statistics on completed transactions. We continue to be engaged in this transaction:
02.02.21 Ethereum BUY: 1441; SL: 1257; Risk per transaction: 1% of the deposit.
The stop loss is located behind the daily extreme. If you have not yet opened a deal, it is preferable to buy today. Trading is conducted on daily charts, so this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.
