Analyzing Thursday's trades:

EUR/USD on 30M chart

EUR/USD continued to trade with clear positivity on Thursday, which had started a day earlier, as we anticipated. The euro had been declining for over two months, and now there are questions regarding its downward movement. The macroeconomic background was very weak because there was only one report during the day. The US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 207,000, close to the forecast of 210,000, essentially matching expectations. Naturally, such a non-resonant figure didn't trigger any significant market reactions, and volatility was just 48 pips. The pair gained momentum towards the end of the day.

In general, we believe that the pair should continue to correct higher in the coming days, as the pair has been falling for two consecutive months. However, in the long term, we expect the downward movement to resume or persist because the euro had traded higher for an entire year.

EUR/USD on 5M chart

The 5-minute chart showed that there were no interesting movements on Thursday. The pair traded sideways throughout the day, and it only tried to breach the 1.0533 level in the middle of the US trading session (when it was already clear that there would be no significant moves). Ultimately, it succeeded, but it was not advisable to open a position almost in the evening, given the lack of volatility throughout the day. There was no point in entering the market to aim for a profit of 10-15 pips.

Trading tips on Friday:

On the 30-minute chart, the pair may yet carve out a new wave of upward correction. In the medium-term perspective, we anticipate a dip in the euro almost inevitably, yet the pair might resume its ascent in the upcoming days (given the notably weak correction on Thursday and Friday of the previous week). Moreover, the US will release important reports that could potentially trigger a significant decline in the US currency. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0391, 1.0433, 1.0451, 1.0491, 1.0533, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0673, 1.0733, 1.0767-1.0781, 1.0835. A stop loss can be set at a breakeven point as soon as the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. On Friday, the euro area calendar is empty. The US will release reports on Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls – the main focus on this week's agenda. Naturally, strong movements and sharp reversals are possible at the beginning of the US session.

Basic trading rules:

1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.

3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.

5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.

Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.