In theory, the dollar should have strengthened quite well yesterday, but the European Central Bank unexpectedly intervened in the matter. ECB Executive Board Member Isabele Schnabel made a report on the negative interest rate policy, highlighting the positive aspects of this approach. However, the essence of her report can be boiled down to one simple conclusion - that in the long term, the negative aspects of the policy of negative interest rates outweigh all possible advantages. In other words, the ECB told us in plain text that it does not intend to pursue such a policy forever and is already starting to think about changing the vector towards just tightening monetary policy. This is what caused, albeit insignificant, growth of the single European currency.

But the dollar had every reason to grow. After all, orders for durable goods grew by 11.2%, while they expected an increase of only 3.9%. That is, consumer activity in the United States is steadily growing, and soon we should expect both industrial production and retail sales. The second is also a pro-inflationary factor, so further inflation growth is possible.

Durable Goods Orders (United States):

Apparently, the dollar will have to wait for it to strengthen for now, as today's data on US GDP will likely frighten investors even more. If the first estimate of GDP showed an acceleration in the rate of economic decline from -5.0% to -32.5%, which in itself is a disaster, then the second will further disappoint the market. The fact is that the rate of economic decline could have been -32.9%. In other words, an already severe economic downturn in history could be even deeper.

GDP (United States):

Since the beginning of the trading week, the euro/dollar pair has been fluctuating within the price range of 1.1785/1.1850, where market participants failed to overcome the set boundaries. The price movement in a narrow band is concentrated on itself, which as a result can lead to a surge in activity in the market.

In terms of dynamics, a slowdown is recorded relative to the average level of volatility.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see that the current slowdown is part of the structure of the main flat 1.1700 / 1.1800 / 1.1900.

We can assume that the deceleration in the 1.1785/1.1850 range will end soon, which will lead to a sharp jump in volatility in the event of a breakout of one or another border.

Let's specify all of the above into trading signals:

- Consider buy positions if the price settles higher than 1.1850, with the prospect of a move to 1.1900.

- Consider sell positions if the price settles lower than 1.1770, with the prospect of a move to 1.1700.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on hourly intervals have a variable buy/sell signal due to price fluctuations in a narrow range. Daily periods signal neutral interest due to price movement within a flat.